000 AXNT20 KNHC 040432 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Oct 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0431 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Kirk is centered near 21.5N 47.5W at 04/0300Z, or 905 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 45 ft. 12 ft seas expand out 360 NM in the NE quadrant, 330 NM in the SE quadrant, 300 NM in the SW quadrant, and 360 NM in the NW quadrant. Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a 15 nm wide eye. Widespread to numerous strong convection is seen from 19.5N to 23N between 44W and 48.5W. Scattered to numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted elsewhere from 17.5N to 25N between 42W and 50W. A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast over the weekend. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible through early Friday, but steady weakening is expected after that. Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and have begun to reach the Lesser Antilles today, and are expected to reach Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Friday, the Bahamas on Saturday, and the east coast of the United States early on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause large and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 10.0N 32.0W at 04/0300Z, or 530 nm WSW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are around 17 ft within 45 nm in the N semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 07N and 11N between 30W and 33W, while scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere from 05N to 13N between 28.5W and 34W. Leslie current movement is expected to continue through Friday morning. By Friday afternoon or evening a slightly faster west- northwestward motion is forecast to continue through the weekend. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... There are no tropical waves across the Atlantic Basin at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18.5N16W and extends southwestward to 12.5N25W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 13N and E of 25W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is exiting the west coast of Africa from 09N to 14N east of 18W. Similar convection is found south of Kirk from 08N to 14N between 41W and 48W. The far eastern portion of the East Pacific monsoon trough also extends into the far southwestern Caribbean, and is generating scattered moderate convection over land and impacting portions of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad 1008 mb low is centered over the SW Gulf near 22N95W, with a trough extending north then northeastward to the northern Gulf coast near the Alabama-Mississippi border, with the trough also extending southeast across the central Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the low/trough. Another surface trough is analyzed off the west coast of the Florida Peninsula producing scattered moderate convection north of 25N and east of 83.5W. Fresh to strong winds northerly prevail S of 20N and W of 94.5W, where seas are 8 to 12 ft. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail W of 95W, where seas are 4-5 ft. The remainder of the basin is experiencing gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore Veracruz Mexico through at least Fri night. A trough of low pres is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the central and western Gulf of Mexico. A broad area of low pres is expected to form over the south-central or SW Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Gradual development is possible after the low develops, and a tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form during the early or middle portions of next week while the low moves slowly eastward. Regardless of development, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of the basin this weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected to begin to materialize over the NE and north central Gulf late Sat, then spread to the north-central and western Gulf sections early next week. These winds are expected to reach near gale speeds over some sections of the central and NE Gulf Tue and Tue night, with some potential of gale force speeds. Expect building seas with these winds. Mariners are urged to check the latest forecasts for updated information on winds and seas especially from late Sun into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low combined with a surface trough over the NW Caribbean are producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 16N-23N between 82-87W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail across much of the Caribbean, except moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds across NW portions. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are in the NW Caribbean, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, numerous showers and thunderstorms over portions of the NW Caribbean due to a surface trough and an upper-level low near the NE part of the Yucatan Peninsula should persist through Fri before shifting N into the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Frequent lighting and strong gusty winds producing rough seas may accompany this activity. Otherwise, a weak pressure pattern in place over the region will continue to allow for light to gentle winds across the basin, except over the northwestern Caribbean near the shower and thunderstorm activity. Looking ahead, northeast to east long period swell generated by Major Hurricane Kirk that is currently over the central Atlantic well ENE of the northern Leeward Islands may reach the northern portion of the Tropical N Atlantic waters and portions of the Leeward Islands on Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie. Away from Kirk and Leslie, a cold front extends from 1006 mb gale force low pres N of the area near 33N60W to 29N63W. Isolated convection is depicted ahead of the front, north of 29N between 56.5 and 59W. Elsewhere across the basin, a 1024 mb Azores high is centered near 36N24W, and extends a ridge to the WSW, passing north of Kirk, to near 30N47W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed across the northern Bahamas due to convergent easterly winds across that area. Away from Kirk and Leslie, anticyclonic winds are observed across much of the Atlantic east of 50W. Recent scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong NE winds north of 25N and east of 16W, including the Canary Islands. Farther west, scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds from 20W to 41W north of 25N. An area of moderate to fresh cyclonic flow is observed around the low centered near 33N60W, with moderate to fresh winds extending to as far south as 29N between 60W and 67W. Gentle to moderate winds are occurring across the remainder of the Atlantic in between the aforementioned features. Seas across much of the Atlantic away from these features are generally 4 to 7 ft. Seas to 8 ft in swell from Kirk have reached as far west as 57W. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 1006 mb gale force low pres N of the area near 33N60W to 29N63W with moderate to fresh winds behind it and associated seas of 8 to 12 ft N of 27N between 60W and 70W. The low will linger while the front becomes a trough into the weekend. Meanwhile Major Hurricane Kirk well ESE of the offshore zones will move NW during the next few days, passing to the E of the NE forecast waters Fri night through Sat night. Rough to very rough seas are expected during the upcoming weekend over most of the waters ENE of the Bahamas. In addition, swells generated from Kirk are expected to reach vicinity of Bermuda during the weekend. Tropical Storm Leslie over the far eastern Atlantic is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane and pass E of the offshore waters starting Tue night. A cold front and elongated area of low pressure may impact the waters W of 70W by Tue. $$ KRV