000 AXNT20 KNHC 041729 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Oct 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Kirk is centered near 23.0N 48.9W at 04/1500 UTC or 850 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Peak seas are to 44 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong is within 210 nm of the center of Kirk. A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a faster forward speed is anticipated over the weekend. Small intensity fluctuations are possible today and tonight. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and continue through early next week. Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are expected to reach the Leeward Islands later today, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas on Sunday, and the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 10.0N 33.0W at 04/1500 UTC or 580 nm WSW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are around 23 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is within 120 nm of the center of Leslie. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northwest and an increase in forward speed early Sunday into Monday. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Leslie is expected to become a hurricane tonight or on Saturday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and extends southwestward to 09N27W. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N to 20N east of 20W. No segments of the ITCZ are analyzed in the tropical Atlantic at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... A trough of low pressure parallels the western Gulf Coast, extending from 29N92W to 1012 mb low pressure centered near 27N97W to a second 1012 mb low pressure near 22N96W to the coast of Mexico near 18N95W. NW winds are strong to locally near gale force off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico, with 4-6 ft seas. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is in the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf from 20N to 27N between 92W and 97W. Scattered moderate convection is also along the Louisiana coast. Elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, SE to E winds are gentle to moderate and seas are 2-4 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore Veracruz Mexico through at least Sat. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pres. A broad area of low pres is expected to form over the SW or south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and thereafter some gradual development is possible while the low moves slowly eastward or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form during the early to middle part of next week if the low remains separate from a frontal boundary that is forecast to extend across the Gulf of Mexico next week. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, increasing winds and building seas are forecast including behind the frontal boundary with thunderstorms increasing in activity and potentially impacting most of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is noted in the far NW Caribbean, just south of the Yucatán Channel. Light to gentle trades prevail across the Caribbean Sea, with moderate speeds analyzed in the Yucatán Channel and in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean near the Yucatan Channel will persist through today before shifting N into the south- central Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Frequent lighting and strong gusty winds producing rough seas may accompany this activity. Northeast to east long period swell generated by Major Hurricane Kirk that is currently over the central Atlantic well ENE of the northern Leeward Islands is starting to reach the waters east of the Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to occasionally moderate winds across the basin into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie. E swell from Kirk is gradually propagating westward towards the Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos. Seas in excess of 8 ft associated with Kirk are north of 15N between 40W and 60W. A cold front extends from 31N56W to 25N60W. Gentle winds and a few showers are near the front. Swell from a gale low north of area has built seas in excess of 8 ft north of 27N between 60W and 68W. In remaining areas of the tropical Atlantic, seas are 4-7 ft in gentle to moderate trades. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from low pres N of the area through 31N55W to 26N60W, followed by fresh northerly winds and rough seas. The low will linger while the front becomes a trough into the weekend. Meanwhile Major Hurricane Kirk well ESE of the offshore zones will move NW during the next few days, passing to the E of the NE forecast waters tonight through Sat night. Rough to very rough seas are expected during the upcoming weekend over most of the waters ENE of the Bahamas. In addition, swells generated from Kirk are expected to reach vicinity of Bermuda during the weekend. Topical Storm Leslie over the far eastern Atlantic is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane and pass E of 55W starting Tue night. A cold front and elongated area of low pres may impact the waters W of 70W starting Tue. $$ Mahoney