000 AXNT20 KNHC 050011 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Oct 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Kirk is centered near 23.7N 49.4W at 04/2100 UTC or 830 NM ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Seas of 12 ft or greater are occurring within 390 NM in the NE quadrant, 330 NM in the SE quadrant, 300 NM in the SW quadrant and 360 NM in the NW quadrant with peak seas to 44 ft. Strong convection is occurring within 60 NM to the south, west and north of the center, and within 90 NM to the east of the center. Moderate to locally strong convection is noted within 240 NM of the center. Small intensity fluctuations are possible tonight. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and continue through early next week. Kirk will move to 25.5N 50.0W Sat morning, 28.5N 50.1W Sat afternoon, 32.0N 49.1W Sun morning, 35.6N 46.5W Sun afternoon, 39.1N 42.0W Mon morning, and 42.0N 36.0W Mon afternoon. Kirk will weaken as an extratropical cyclone over 45.0N 19.0W Tue afternoon. Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are expected to reach the Leeward Islands this evening, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas on Sunday, and the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 10.3N 33.6W at 04/2100 UTC or 600 NM WSW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater are occurring within 90 NM in the northern semicircle and within 60 NM in the southern semicircle with peak seas near 23 ft. Strong convection is occurring within 60 NM to the north and east of the center, and within 90 NM to the south and west of the center. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Leslie is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday. Leslie will move to 10.7N 34.6W Sat morning, 11.2N 35.9W Sat afternoon, 12.2N 37.1W Sun morning, 13.5N 38.3W Sun afternoon, 14.9N 39.8W Mon morning, and 16.3N 41.6W Mon afternoon. Leslie will change little in intensity as it moves to 19.0N 45.0W Tue afternoon. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and extends southwestward to 09N27W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N east of 22W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1012 mb low is centered near 26N97W and troughing extends northeastward from the low and parallels the northern Gulf Coast. A second 1012 mb low is analyzed near 22N96W, and a trough extends southward through the Bay of Campeche. This pattern supports strong to near gale force winds and seas of 6-7 ft just offshore of Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to strong convection is occurring from 20N to 22N between 95W and 97W, and scattered moderate convection is noted across much of the western Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen offshore of Florida southward through the Florida Straits. Observed winds are out of the E to NE at moderate to locally fresh speeds across much of the Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to strong N to NW winds will pulse offshore of Veracruz, Mexico through early next week. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern Gulf, associated with broad troughing and low pressure near 22N96W, is expected to see gradual development and a tropical or subtropical depression or storm is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves eastward or northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, increasing winds and building seas are forecast including behind the frontal boundary with thunderstorms increasing in activity and potentially impacting most of the basin. There is a low chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours, and a high chance of formation within the next 7 days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate SE winds are observed offshore of Honduras, with gentle to moderate E to NE winds occurring elsewhere. Moderate to strong convection is ongoing along and just south of the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 2-4 ft are observed across the basin. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean near the Yucatan Channel will continue tonight before shifting north into the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Frequent lighting and strong gusty winds producing rough seas may accompany this activity. NE to E long period swell generated by Major Hurricane Kirk, located over the central Atlantic well ENE of the northern Leeward Islands, will reach the Leeward Islands this evening and the Greater Antilles on Saturday. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to occasionally moderate winds across the basin into early next week. Looking ahead, fresh to strong S to SW winds and locally moderate seas will develop by early to mid next week across the northwestern Caribbean as a tropical or subtropical depression or storm forms in the Gulf of Mexico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Major Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie. E swell from Kirk is propagating westward towards the Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos. Seas in excess of 8 ft associated with Kirk are north of 18N between 40W and 60W. A 1007 mb low centered near 32N61W and an associated stationary front extends from 31N57W to 25N61W. Swell from a gale low north of the area has built seas in excess of 8 ft north of 26N between 60W and 70W. In remaining areas of the tropical Atlantic, seas are 4-7 ft in gentle to moderate trades. For the forecast W of 55W away from the immediate impacts from Major Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie, moderate to fresh N winds and rough seas will continue to the south and southwest of the 1007 mb low. Mixed NE to E swell from this low and from Major Hurricane Kirk will lead to rough to very rough seas north of 20N and east of 75W this weekend, with seas slowly subsiding early next week. In addition, swells generated from Kirk are expected to reach the vicinity of Bermuda during the weekend. Topical Storm Leslie over the far eastern Atlantic is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane and pass E of 55W starting Tue night. A cold front and elongated area of low pres may impact the waters W of 70W starting Tue. Looking ahead, a tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday or Tuesday. Some development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. There is a low chance of tropical formation within the next 7 days. $$ ADAMS