000 AXNT20 KNHC 050558 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Oct 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0552 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Kirk is centered near 25.0N 49.8W at 05/0300Z or 8500 NM ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Seas of 12 ft or greater are occurring within 390 NM in the NE quadrant, 330 NM in the SE quadrant, 360 NM in the SW quadrant and 360 NM in the NW quadrant with peak seas to 44 ft. Strong convection is occurring within 60 NM to the south, west and north of the center, and within 90 NM to the east of the center. Moderate to locally strong convection is noted within 240 NM of the center. Small intensity fluctuations are possible tonight. Kirk is expected to turn to the north on Saturday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Sunday and Monday. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Small intensity fluctuations are possible overnight, but steady weakening should begin on Saturday. Swell generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are expected to reach the Leeward Islands this evening, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas on Sunday, and the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Recently upgraded Hurricane Leslie is centered near 10.4N 34.2W at 05/0300Z or 630 NM WSW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater are occurring within 90 NM in the northern semicircle and within 60 NM in the southern semicircle with peak seas near 16 ft. Strong convection is occurring within 60 NM to the north and east of the center, and within 90 NM to the south and west of the center. Leslie WNW motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the northwest and an increase in forward speed are expected by Saturday evening or Sunday. Gradual strengthening is forecast through Sunday followed by gradual weakening on Monday. Gulf of Mexico (AL92): Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that an area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is broad and ill defined, but it is producing winds just below gale force. Development of this system is expected, and a tropical or subtropical depression or storm is likely to form this weekend or early next week while moving eastward or northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico. Interests on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week. Formation chance through 48 hours is medium. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory and the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... There are no tropical waves across the Atlantic Basin at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and extends southwestward to 10N27W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 21W and 23W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for more information about AL92. A 1013 mb low is centered near 27N97W and troughing extends northeastward from the low and parallels the northern Gulf Coast. A second 1009 mb low (AL92) is analyzed near 22N95.5W, and a trough extends southward through the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is depicted north of 25.5 west of 92W. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are depicted from 20N to 23N west of 95W in association to AL92. Another surface trough is depicted over the eastern Gulf and is supporting scattered moderate convection over the offshore Florida waters including the Florida Straits. Recent scatterometer data depicted strong to near gale-force winds just offshore of Veracruz, Mexico. Seas in this area are 3 to 6 ft. Elsewhre, gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail with seas 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, gusty winds and locally rough seas are active near numerous showers and thunderstorms persisting over portions of the SW Gulf, near a broad area of low pressure. This pattern will maintain fresh to strong NW winds off the coast of Veracruz through at least Sat. The low pressure may continue to develop over the next several days, supporting moderate to fresh winds across the northern and western Gulf through Sat night. Looking ahead, the low pressure may develop further as moves eastward or northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico, to the south of a frontal boundary moving into the northern Gulf. The low may develop into a tropical or subtropical depression or storm late this weekend or early next week as it moves into the eastern Gulf. Regardless of development, increasing winds and building seas are forecast including behind the frontal boundary and near the low with thunderstorms increasing in activity and potentially impacting most of the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along and just south of the Yucatan Channel in association with a surface trough. Moderate SE winds are observed offshore of Honduras, with mainly gentle NE to E winds occurring elsewhere. Seas across the basin are 2 to 3 ft, except for the NW Caribbean where seas are 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will persist in the far NW Caribbean near the Yucatan Channel through at least Sat. Hurricane Kirk will remain well to the northeast of the Leeward Islands, but large swell generated from Kirk will impact the Atlantic waters east of the Leeward Islands through Sat night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin into early next week. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase across the far NW Caribbean late in the weekend into early next week due to the possible development of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Major Hurricane Kirk and recently upgraded Hurricane Leslie. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N57W and extends southwestward to 25N67W. Isolated moderate convection is depicted along the trough, north of 30N. A 1008 mb low centered near 31.5N61W is generating seas in excess of 8 ft north of 26N between 60W and 71W. E swell from Kirk are propagating westward towards the Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos. Seas in excess of 8 ft associated with Kirk are north of 17N between 40W and 62W. In the remaining areas of the tropical Atlantic, winds are gentle to moderate with seas 4- 7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N57W to 25N68W followed by moderate to fresh winds. The front will gradually weaken through the weekend as it sinks S. Meanwhile Major Hurricane Kirk will remain E the region as it move into the north-central Atlantic through Sat night. Very large swells generated by Kirk will mix with swell following the front, producing rough seas over the waters E of 75W into early next week. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase off northeast Florida and north of the Bahamas Tue and Wed associated with a frontal moving into the region and developing low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. Farther east, large NE swell may impact the waters southeast of Bermuda Tue and Wed, while swells associated with tropical cyclone Leslie, forecast to remain E of the area, may impact the waters E of 60W by mid-week. $$ KRV