000 AXNT20 KNHC 050919 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Oct 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Kirk is centered near 26.2N 50.2W at 05/0900 UTC or 860 nm NE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Peak seas are estimated at around 42 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 410 nm in the NE quadrant, 210 nm in the S semicircle, and 330 nm in the NW quadrant. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast through early next week, but Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next couple of days. A turn to the north is expected today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Sun and Mon. Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles. These swells are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas tonight and Sun, and to the Azores on Mon. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Leslie is centered near 10.7N 34.8W at 05/0900 UTC or 660 nm WSW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are estimated at around 22 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center of Leslie, except within 240 nm in the SW quadrant. Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin on Sun. A northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast to begin by tonight and continue through Tue. Gulf of Mexico (AL92): Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that an 1009 mb area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico near 21N95W is broad and ill defined, but it is producing winds just below gale force with seas to around 8 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm in the NW semicircle of the broad low. Development of this system is expected, and a tropical or subtropical depression or storm is likely to form this weekend or early next week while moving eastward or northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico. Interests on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week. In addition, increasing winds and building seas are also forecast with the low. This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours, and a high chance through the next 7 days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Hurricane Kirk and Hurricane Leslie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory and the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Invest AL92. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands near 20W, south of 18N, moving west around 10 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W and extends west-southwestward to 12N29W. No additional monsoon trough or ITCZ is analyzed west of there due to the presence of Hurricanes Kirk and Leslie. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 30W and 33W to the east of Leslie, and from 09N to 13N between 50W and 53W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for more information about Invest AL92. A frontal trough appears to be forming from the NE Gulf near 28N83W to 26N90W to near the low pressure AL92 area. A weak surface trough is analyzed offshore Florida in the eastern Gulf with scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the waters east of 87W. Moderate to fresh winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are north and west of the developing feature, locally strong in the NE Gulf per an earlier ASCAT pass. Winds are gentle to moderate SE of the developing feature, along with seas of 3 ft or less. Winds and seas are higher in and near any convection. For the forecast, the focus will be on Invest AL92 as described in detail in the Special Features section. Conditions may finally improve across the basin toward the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along and just south of the Yucatan Channel in association with a surface trough. Moderate to fresh SE winds are observed offshore of Honduras, with mainly gentle to locally moderate NE to E winds occurring elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean west of 83W, and 3 ft or less elsewhere, except higher in Atlantic passages due to large and long period swells generated from distant Hurricane Kirk which is moving through the north-central Atlantic. For the forecast, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will persist in the far NW Caribbean near the Yucatan Channel through at least today. Hurricane Kirk will remain well to the northeast of the Leeward Islands, but associated large swells will impact the Atlantic waters east of the Leeward Islands through tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin into early next week. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase across the far NW Caribbean early next week due to the possible development of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Hurricanes Kirk and Leslie, as well as on Invest AL92 which may impact the waters offshore Florida next week. A frontal trough extends from 31N58W to 24N66W. Moderate to fresh winds are north of 29N between 62W and 68W. Large and hazardous swell associated with Kirk are spreading across the waters north of 16N and west of 40W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere away from the frontal trough, Kirk and Leslie, except fresh to locally strong north of 22N between the coast of Africa and 20W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft away from the Kirk and Leslie swells, except 7 to 10 ft between Africa and the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal trough feature will gradually shift south through the weekend. Meanwhile Hurricane Kirk will remain east the region as it moves through the north- central Atlantic through tonight. Very large swells generated by Kirk will mix with swell following the trough, producing rough and hazardous seas over the waters east of 75W into early next week. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase off Florida and near the Bahamas mid-week associated with a front moving into the region and low pressure, AL92, over the Gulf of Mexico which has the potential for tropical cyclone formation. Farther east, large NE swell may impact the waters SE of Bermuda Tue and Wed, while swells associated with tropical cyclone Leslie, forecast to remain east of the area, may impact the waters east of 60W by mid-week. $$ Lewitsky