000 AXNT20 KNHC 051809 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Oct 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recent satellite wind data indicate that Tropical Depression Fourteen has strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton, centered near 22.3N 95.3W. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (35 knots) with higher gusts. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Milton is moving NNE at 3 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 20N to 26N between 91W and the coasts of Mexico and Deep South Texas. Peak seas are estimated near 10 ft. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane by early Monday. The system could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. A slow northeastward or east- northeastward motion is expected during the next day or so. A faster east-northeastward to northeastward motion is forecast by Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move across the south- central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Milton may produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. Areas of heavy rainfall will also impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Swells generated by Milton will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Kirk is centered near 27.6N 50.3W at 05/1500 UTC or 900 nm NE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving N at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are estimated at around 48 ft. Seas of 12 ft or greater extend out 390 NM from the center in the NE quadrant of Kirk, and out 360 NM in all other quadrants. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted north of 25N between 47W and 57W. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast through early next week, but Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next couple of days. A faster northeastward motion is expected on Sunday and Monday. Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles. These swells are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas tonight and Sunday, and to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Leslie is centered near 11.1N 35.4W at 05/1500 UTC or 680 nm WSW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are estimated at around 26 ft. Seas of 12 ft or greater extend out 105 NM from the center in the northern semicircle of Leslie, out 75 NM in the SW quadrant, and and out 60 NM in the SE quadrant. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 16N between 29W and 38W. Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin on Sunday. A northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast to begin by tonight and continue through Tuesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public Advisories for Tropical Storm Milton, Hurricane Kirk, and Hurricane Leslie at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is passing through the Cabo Verde Islands near 23.5W, with axis running from 05N to 18N and moving west around 15 to 20 kt. Satellite shows scattered moderate convection developing along the northern portions of this wave, generally from 15N to 18N between 22W and 25W including the Cabo Verde Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends west-northwestward to 12N28W. No additional monsoon trough or ITCZ is analyzed farther west due to the presence of Hurricanes Kirk and Leslie. Scattered showers are observed via satellite in the general vicinity of the monsoon trough. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for more information about Tropical Storm Milton. A surface trough is analyzed from the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula into the eastern Gulf. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring generally south of 27N between 88W and the Florida Peninsula and Florida Straits. Another area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is forming due to convergent surface winds in the northeastern Gulf north of 29N between 84W and 90W. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are analyzed across much of the northern and western Gulf away from Tropical Storm Milton. Across the southern and eastern Gulf, gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail. For the forecast, newly-formed Tropical Storm Milton is forecast to strengthen as it reaches near 22.9N 94.2W Sun morning with maximum sustained 45 kt gusts 55 kt, to near 22.8N 93.0W Sun evening with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt and intensify into a hurricane near 22.9N 91.6W Mon morning with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Hurricane Milton is forecast to reach near 23.4N 89.8W Mon evening with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt and to near 24.3N 87.6W Tue morning with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt. Hurricane Milton is forecast to change little in intensity as it moves to the near 27.0N 83.4W early Wed, then begin to weaken as it crosses the Florida peninsula reaching to waters E of northern Florida near 29.9N 78.3W early on Thu. A front is expected to develop across the northern Gulf through the weekend, with increasing winds and building seas N and W of the boundary. Conditions may finally improve across the basin toward the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is ongoing along and just south of the Yucatan Channel in association with a surface trough. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring in the central to southwestern Caribbean, associated with a 1010 mb area of low pressure over the Colombian Basin. To the north, another surface trough extends from the Cayman Islands across Jamaica to just south of Hispaniola, with isolated thunderstorms occurring in the immediate vicinity of the trough. Away from convection, light to gentle E winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are occurring across much of the Caribbean. For the forecast, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will persist in the far NW Caribbean near the Yucatan Channel today. Hurricane Kirk will remain well to the NE of the Leeward Islands, but associated large swells will impact the Atlantic waters E of the Leeward Islands through tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin into early next week. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase across the far NW Caribbean early next week due to the possible development of low pressure, possibly a tropical cyclone, over the Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Hurricanes Kirk and Leslie, as well as on Tropical Storm Milton which may impact the Atlantic waters offshore eastern Florida next week. To the south of Hurricane Leslie, an area of convergent surface winds is aiding in the development of scattered moderate convection from 04N to 09N between 32W and 40W. Offshore of eastern Florida, a pre-frontal surface trough is analyzed with scattered showers observed nearby. Outside of convection, large and hazardous swell associated with Kirk is spreading across the waters north of 17N and west of 40W. Recent scatterometer data also indicates an area of moderate to fresh cyclonic winds north of 28N between 60W and 69W, along with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Away from all of these features, gentle to moderate E to NE winds prevail, except moderate to fresh NE winds north of 22N between the coast of Africa and 20W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft away from the Kirk and Leslie swells, with the exception of an area just to the northeast of the Canary Islands where seas are 6 to 9 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, Major Hurricane Kirk will remain E of the region as it moves through the north central Atlantic through tonight. Very large swells generated by Kirk will mix with swell present over the water ENE of the Bahamas producing rough and hazardous seas over the waters E of 75W into early next week. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase off Florida and near the Bahamas mid- week associated with a front moving into the region and recently formed Tropical Storm Milton over the SW Gulf of Mexico, which is forecast to track eastward near the front. Farther E, large NE swell may impact the waters SE of Bermuda Tue and Wed, while swells associated with tropical cyclone Leslie, forecast to remain E of the area, may impact the waters E of 60W by mid-week. $$ Adams