000 AXNT20 KNHC 052327 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Oct 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Milton is centered near 22.7N 95.5W at 05/2100 UTC or 210 nm N of Veracruz Mexico, moving NNE at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 75 nm SW and 30 nm NE semicircles of center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere from 23N to 26N between 91W and 95W. Peak seas are estimated at 14 ft. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night, and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by mid week. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Kirk is centered near 29.6N 50.0W at 05/2100 UTC or 990 nm NE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving N at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 46 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of center, except 90 nm NE quadrant. Kirk is moving toward the north and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A faster northeastward motion is expected on Sunday and Monday. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast through early next week, but Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next couple of days. Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles. These swells are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas tonight and Sunday, and to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Leslie is centered near 11.6N 36.0W at 05/2100 UTC or 700 nm WSW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are estimated at around 26 ft. Leslie is moving toward the west- northwest. A northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast to begin by tonight and continue through Tuesday. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin on Sunday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public Advisories for Tropical Storm Milton, Hurricane Kirk, and Hurricane Leslie at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is just west of the Cabo Verde Islands with its axis along 26W south of 18N.It is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the northern end of the wave axis affecting parts of the Cabo Verde Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends SW to 07N22W. No additional monsoon trough or ITCZ is analyzed farther west due to the presence of Hurricanes Kirk and Leslie. Scattered showers are in the general vicinity of the monsoon trough. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for more information about Tropical Storm Milton. A surface trough is analyzed over the eastern Gulf and runs from 27N89W across the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are mainly on the E side of the trough axis. This convective active extends eastward across parts of SW Florida and the Florida Keys. Convection is also flaring up over the Yucatan Peninsula. The most recent scatterometer data confirmed the well-defined circulation of Milton as well as an area of fresh to strong NE winds over the north-central part of the Gulf. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are observed. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are analyzed across much of the northern and western Gulf away from Milton. Across the southern and eastern Gulf, seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail. For the forecast, Milton is forecast to reach near 23.1N 91.2W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt, and continue to strengthen as it reaches near 23.8N 89.3W late Mon night, to near 24.8N 87.2W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt and change little in intensity as it moves to near 27.7N 83.0W by Wed afternoon, and track across central Florida into Wed night. Increasing winds and seas are expected over most of the northern and western Gulf sections beginning Sun. Conditions should improve across the basin once Milton departs the basin. Swells generated by Milton are expected to affect most of the Gulf by early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A diffluent pattern aloft covers the NW Caribbean and the SE Gulf of Mexico while an upper-level trough extends from the Windward Passage to the SW Caribbean. This upper-level pattern is helping to induce convection over the Greater Antilles, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the central and SW parts of the basin. Low topped trade wind showers dominate the eastern Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient across the region supports light to gentle winds. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft, except 4 to 7 ft across the passages in the NE Caribbean. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms over the far northwestern Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula will weaken early tonight. Major Hurricane Kirk will remain well to the NE of the Leeward Islands, but associated large long period swells will continue to impact the Atlantic waters E of the Leeward Islands into Sun morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin into early next week. Looking ahead, strong southerly winds are expected over the far northwestern Caribbean early next week due to what is expected to be Hurricane Milton that will be tracking across the south-central Gulf of Mexico at that time. Seas will builds with these winds. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Hurricanes Kirk and Leslie, as well as on Tropical Storm Milton which may impact the Atlantic waters offshore eastern Florida next week. A ridge dominates the western Atlantic and the Bahamas W of 70W and extends southward into Cuba. Between 40W and 70W, there are a 1006 mb non-tropical low pressure located near 31N62W and Major Hurricane Kirk. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are related to the non-tropical low center. High pressure, with a 1018 mb center near the Madeira Islands, and another center of 1020 mb near 29N35W, is in control of the weather pattern across the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters N of 20N. Large and hazardous swell generated by Kirk is spreading across the waters north of 17N and E of 70W. Outside of the tropical cyclones and the aforementioned low, gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail, except moderate to fresh NE winds near the coasts of Morocco and Western Sahara. Seas are 5 to 7 ft away from the Kirk and Leslie swells. For the forecast west of 55W, Major Hurricane Kirk NE of the region will continue to track N and well away from the offshore waters through Sun. Very large swells generated by Kirk will mix with swell present over the water ENE of the Bahamas producing rough and hazardous seas over the waters E of 75W into early next week. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase off Florida and near the Bahamas by mid-week associated with a front moving into the region and recently upgraded Tropical Storm Milton currently over the SW Gulf of Mexico. Milton is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane Sun night, move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Mon through Tue, approach the west coast of Florida on Wed and track across central Florida to just E of central Florida late Wed night and to E of northern Florida near 30N77W by Thu afternoon. Farther E, swells associated with tropical cyclone Leslie are forecast to remain E of the area. They may impact the waters E of 60W by mid-week. $$ GR