000 AXNT20 KNHC 060432 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Oct 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0431 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Milton is centered near 22.9N 95.1W at 06/0300Z or 220 nm WNW of Progreso Mexico, moving NNE at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 75 nm SW and 30 nm NE semicircles of center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere from 20N to 24N between 94W and 97W. Peak seas are estimated at 13 ft. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Kirk is centered near 31.3N 49.3W AT 06/0300Z or 1170 nm WSW of the Azores, moving N at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 46 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 50 nm of center, except 90 nm NE quadrant. On Sunday, Kirk should accelerate and turn toward the north-northeast and northeast, followed by an east-northeastward to eastward motion on Monday and Tuesday. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast through early next week, but Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next couple of days. Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles. These swells are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas tonight and Sunday, and to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Leslie is centered near 12.4N 36.9W AT 06/0300Z or 745 nm WSW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are estimated at around 25 ft. Leslie is moving NW and this motion is expected to continue with a slight increase in forward speed during the next few days. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin Sunday and continue through early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public Advisories for Tropical Storm Milton, Hurricane Kirk, and Hurricane Leslie at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is just west of the Cabo Verde Islands with its axis along 26.5W south of 18N. It is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time in association with this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N17W and extends SW to 10N27W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 07N45W and extends NW to 13N57W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted along the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for more information about Tropical Storm Milton. A deep layer trough over the north Gulf is producing scattered moderate convection north of 26.5N. A surface trough is analyzed over the eastern Gulf and runs from 28N83W to 27N87W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted north of 24.5N east of 87W. Another surface trough is analyzed over the Yucatan Peninsula and showers and thunderstorms are drifting westward over the offshore waters of Merida, Mexico. Fresh NE winds are over the north-central part of the Gulf. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are observed. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are analyzed across much of the northern and western Gulf away from Milton. Across the southern and eastern Gulf, seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Milton is near 22.9N 95.1W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving north-northeast at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Milton will move to 23.0N 94.6W Sun morning, 23.0N 93.5W Sun evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 23.1N 92.1W Mon morning, 23.3N 90.5W Mon evening, 23.9N 88.6W Tue morning, and 25.3N 86.4W Tue evening. Milton will change little in intensity as it moves to 28.2N 82.3W late Wed. Meanwhile a frontal trough or front will develop across the northern Gulf ahead of Milton with fresh to strong winds and building seas, mainly north of 26N. Conditions may improve across the basin by the end of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A diffluent pattern aloft combined with a surface trough covers the NW Caribbean while an upper-level trough extends from the Windward Passage to the SW Caribbean. This upper-level pattern is helping to induce convection over the Greater Antilles and the central and SW parts of the basin. A weak pressure gradient across the region supports light to gentle winds. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Milton is in the western Gulf of Mexico near 22.9N 95.1W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving north- northeast at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Milton will move to 23.0N 94.6W Sun morning, 23.0N 93.5W Sun evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 23.1N 92.1W Mon morning, 23.3N 90.5W Mon evening, 23.9N 88.6W Tue morning, and 25.3N 86.4W Tue evening. Milton will change little in intensity as it moves to 28.2N 82.3W late Wed, with impacts possible in the far NW Caribbean, including near the Yucatan Channel. Meanwhile, long period NE to E swells associated with distant and departing Hurricane Kirk will continue to impact the Tropical N Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages into Sun morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin into early next week. Winds may freshen in the eastern Caribbean mid-week due to an incoming tropical wave. Long-period swell associated with Hurricane Leslie, forecast to remain E of the Tropical N Atlantic, may impact the Atlantic waters mid-week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Hurricanes Kirk and Leslie, as well as on Tropical Storm Milton which may impact the Atlantic waters offshore eastern Florida next week. A ridge dominates the western Atlantic and the Bahamas W of 68W and extends southward into Cuba. Between 40.5W and 73W, there are a 1004 mb non-tropical low pressure located near 31N62W and Major Hurricane Kirk. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are related to the non-tropical low center. High pressure, with a 1018 mb center near the Madeira Islands, and another center of 1020 mb near 29N36W, is in control of the weather pattern across the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters N of 20N. Large and hazardous swell generated by Kirk is spreading across the waters north of 18N and E of 71W. Outside of the tropical cyclones and the aforementioned low, gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail, except fresh to strong NE winds near the coasts of Morocco. Seas are 6 to 8 ft away from the Kirk and Leslie swells. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Milton is in the western Gulf of Mexico near 22.9N 95.1W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving north-northeast at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Milton is forecast to approach the Florida Gulf coast by early Wed, moving across portions of Florida thereafter, and potentially into the Atlantic waters off Florida Wed night into Thu. Meanwhile, long period NE to E swells associated with distant and departing Hurricane Kirk will continue to impact the waters E of the Bahamas through the remainder of the weekend, subsiding early next week. Looking ahead, farther E, swells associated with Hurricane Leslie, forecast to remain E of the area, may impact the waters E of 60W by mid- week. $$ KRV