000 AXNT20 KNHC 061804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Oct 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Milton, at 06/1800 UTC, is in the western Gulf of Mexico, close to 22.5N 94.0W. This position is also about 251 nm/465 km to the WNW of Progreso in Mexico; and about 707 nm/1310 km to the WSW of Tampa in Florida. Milton is moving is moving toward the E, or 100 degrees 05 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots. Wind speeds of 50 knots are within: 0 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 20 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 10 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical storm force winds are: within 40 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 50 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 40 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 30 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are: within 30 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 30 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 30 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea height value is 16 feet. Expect for the next 12 hours or so: strong to near gale- force winds, and rough seas, elsewhere within 180 nm W semicircle and 60 nm E semicircle of the center. Moderate seas, and fresh to strong winds, are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward away from Milton. Precipitation: numerous strong is from 21N to 24N between 93W and 96W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 20N to 25N between 91W and Mexico. A stationary front/warm front is along 26N81W in Florida, 28N85W 26N90W. A 1011 mb low pressure center is along the front near 28N87W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from the frontal boundary southward between 79W and 87W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 28N southward between 87W and 91W. Slight to moderate seas are from 90W eastward. Fresh to strong winds are from 26N northward between 85W and 91W. The center of Hurricane Leslie at 06/1500 UTC is close to 13.3N 37.9W. Leslie is moving toward the NW, or 310 degrees 08 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 80 knots with gusts to 100 knots. Hurricane-force wind speeds are within: 15 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; 15 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Wind speeds of 50 knots are within: 30 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 20 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 20 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 30 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical storm-force winds are: within 80 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 50 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 40 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 70 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are: within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea height value is 27 feet. Expect for the next 24 hours or so: wind speeds 20 knots or less, and rough seas, elsewhere within 180 nm E semicircle and 120 nm W semicircle of the center. Expect also for the next 24 hours or so: winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas in mixed swell in the remainder of the area that is from 08N to 16N from 43W eastward. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N to 18N between 32W and 42W. The center of Hurricane Kirk, at 06/1500 UTC, is close to 35.6N 47.7W. Kirk is moving toward the NE, or 035 degrees 22 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 85 knots with gusts to 105 knots. Hurricane-force wind speeds are within: 100 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; and 95 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Wind speeds of 50 knots are within: 150 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; and 110 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Tropical storm-force winds are within: within 240 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 190 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within: 480 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; and 540 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. The maximum sea height value is 52 feet well to the north of the area. Expect for the next 24 hours or so: strong to near gale-force S to SW winds, and rough to very rough seas from 26N northward between 41W and 50W. Expect also very rough to high seas primarily in N to NE swell from 28N northward. Expect also for the next 24 hours or so: winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas in mixed swell, in the remainder of the area that is from 23N northward between 40W and 62W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 24N northward between 40W and 50W. A 1008 mb low pressure center is 30N62W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 20N northward between 40W and 70W. Please, consult bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N to 20N between 22W and 30W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W, to 08N23W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 21W eastward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N to 16N between 44W and 62W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Hurricane MILTON, that is in the western sections of Gulf of Mexico. Refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, also, for details about the wind speeds and the sea heights, for the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Milton is near 22.4N 94.4W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving east-southeast at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Milton will strengthen to a hurricane near 22.2N 93.7W this evening with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, move to near 22.2N 92.0W Mon morning, then to near 22.5N 90.0W Mon evening with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt, to near 23.5N 88.0W Tue morning with maximum winds 110 kt gusts 135 kt, to near 24.7N 86.0W Tue evening, then begin to weaken as it reaches near 26.5N 84.0W Wed morning with maximum sustained winds 105 kt gusts 130 kt. Milton is forecast to approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Meanwhile a frontal trough or front will linger across the northern Gulf ahead of Milton with fresh to strong winds and building seas, mainly north of 26N. Conditions may improve across the basin by the end of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, are in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N southward between 60W and 66W. The monsoon trough is along 11N74W at the coast of Colombia, to 10N80W, beyond Nicaragua. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 14N southward from 74W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 06/1200 UTC, are: 2.90 in Trinidad; 0.86 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands; 0.54 in Freeport in the Bahamas; 0.53 in Guadeloupe; 0.29 in Curacao; 0.06 in Merida in Mexico; 0.05 in Kingston and Montego Bay in Jamaica; 0.02 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Tropical Storm Milton over the SW Gulf of Mexico is forecast to move east-northeastward motion on Mon, followed by followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tue and Wed. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move north of the Yucatan Peninsula and to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days and become a hurricane later today and a major hurricane late Mon. Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas over most of the NW Caribbean, including waters south of Cuba to near 19N and the Yucatan Channel along with building seas from late Mon night through Wed evening. Meanwhile, long period NE to E swells associated with distant and departing Hurricane Kirk will continue to impact the Tropical N Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages through early this evening. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin into the early part of the week. Winds may freshen in the eastern Caribbean midweek due to an incoming tropical wave. Long-period swell associated with Hurricane Leslie, forecast to remain E of the Tropical N Atlantic, may impact the Atlantic waters midweek. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the Special Features section, for details about Hurricane Leslie and Hurricane Kirk, and the nearby wind speeds and sea heights. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 06/1200 UTC, are: 0.54 in Freeport in the Bahamas; and 0.02 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Tropical Storm Milton is currently over the SW Gulf of Mexico. Milton is moving east southeastward, and this general motion is expected during today. An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on Mon, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tue and Wed. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move north of the Yucatan Peninsula and to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days and become a hurricane later today and a major hurricane late Mon before it approaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Milton is forecast to track east northeastward across central Florida to east of Florida on Thu. Otherwise, long period NE to E swells associated with distant Hurricane Kirk will continue to impact the waters E of the Bahamas through tonight, subsiding during the early part of the week. Looking ahead, farther E, swells associated with Hurricane Leslie, forecast to remain E of the area, may impact the waters E of 60W by midweek. $$ mt/ja