000 AXNT20 KNHC 062359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Oct 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2340 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Milton is centered near 22.5N 93.4W at 06/0000 UTC or 220 nm WNW of Progreso Mexico, moving E at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 21 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm in the E semicircle and 105 nm in the W in the S semicircle of center. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of Mexico Monday and Tuesday and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday. Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days and become a major hurricane on Monday. It is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula midweek. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday and Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued tonight or early Monday. Hurricane Kirk is centered N of area near 37.0N 46.2W at 06/2100 UTC or 910 nm W of the Azores, moving NNE at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 48 ft, N of the area. Satellite imagery suggests that Kirk has begun the process of extratropical transition with most of the convection in the NE quadrant and away from the center. Kirk is moving toward the north-northeast. A turn toward the northeast is expected tonight. An acceleration toward the east-northeast or east is expected by Monday night. Although gradual weakening is expected over the next few days and Kirk is expected to become post-tropical on Monday, it will remain a large cyclone with a large wind field through the early part of this week. Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States and portions of Atlantic Canada. These swells will spread to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Leslie is centered near 14.0N 38.6W at 06/2100 UTC or 830 nm W of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 27 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm on the N semicircle of center. The hurricane has started to enter a more hostile environment. As a result, gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Monday and continue through mid-week. Leslie is moving toward the northwest and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public Advisories for Hurricane Milton, Hurricane Kirk, and Hurricane Leslie at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands with its axis near 28W, south of 18N, moving slowly west at 5 to 10 kt. Small area of moderate convection is noted near the northern tip of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends westward to 08N23W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 06N43W to NE Venezuela near 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 11N between 48W and 55W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over NE Venezuela. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for more information about Hurricane Milton. A complex weather pattern, typical for the transition months, has developed over the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Milton is over the western half of the Gulf while low pressure of 1011 mb has formed near 26N87W with a warm front to near Fort Myers, Florida. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are north of the low and warm front with seas of 6 to 8 ft. A band-like of moderate to isolated strong convection is south of the low and front affecting the SE Gulf. This convective activity extends eastward over south Florida, the Florida Keys and western Cuba. For the forecast, Hurricane Milton will move to near 22.2N 92.6W late tonight, to near 22.2N 90.9W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 110 kt gusts 135 kt and continue to strengthen as it reaches near 22.6N 89.0W late Mon night with maximum sustained winds 120 kt gusts 145 kt, to near 23.6N 86.9W Tue afternoon, to near 25.2N 85.1W late Tue night and to near 27.0N 83.1W Wed afternoon and continue toward the west coast of Florida Wed night. Elsewhere, the low pressure will slowly shift southward through Tue and the warm front will transition to stationary front. Conditions may improve across the basin by the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A diffluent pattern aloft persists over the NW Caribbean while an upper-level trough extends from the Windward Passage to the SW Caribbean. This upper-level pattern is helping to induce convection over western Cuba. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are noted over the remainder of the Greater Antilles and in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands where upper diffluence is also noted. A weak pressure gradient across the region supports light to gentle winds. Seas are generally 3 ft or less, higher near Atlantic passages due to long period NE swell. For the forecast, Hurricane Milton is forecast to move north of the Yucatan Peninsula late Mon through Tue, across the SE Gulf of Mexico on Tue and Tue night approaching the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days and become a major hurricane on Mon. Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas over most of the NW Caribbean, including waters south of west and central Cuba to near 19N and the Yucatan Channel along with building seas from late Mon night through Wed evening. Meanwhile, long period NE to E swells associated with distant and departing Hurricane Kirk will continue to impact the Tropical N Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages through early this evening. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin into the early part of the week. Winds may freshen in the eastern Caribbean midweek due to an incoming tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Hurricanes Kirk and Leslie, as well as on Hurricane Milton which may impact the Atlantic waters offshore eastern Florida by mid-week. A weak low is analyzed near 30N60W as depicted on the most recent satellite derived wind data. Winds are moderate to fresh on the SW semicircle of the low center, particularly north of 25N between 58W and 65W. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters outside of Hurricanes Kirk and Leslie. Winds are mainly gentle to moderate away from the tropical systems, locally fresh offshore southern Morocco. As for seas, large swell associated with Kirk dominate most of the waters north of 18N and east of the Bahamas to 40W. Seas are in general 4 to 7 ft elsewhere away from Kirk and Leslie. For the forecast west of 55W, as previously mentioned Hurricane Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of Mexico Mon and Tue, and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wed. Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days and become a major hurricane Mon before it approaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wed. Milton is forecast to track east northeastward across central Florida to east of Florida on Thu. Expect impacts in the form of increasing winds and building seas in advance of Milton over waters east of Florida beginning late Wed. Otherwise, long period NE to E swells associated with distant Hurricane Kirk will continue to impact the waters E of the Bahamas through tonight, subsiding during the early part of the week. Looking ahead, farther E, swells associated with Hurricane Leslie, forecast to remain E of the area, may impact the waters E of 60W by midweek. $$ GR