000 AXNT20 KNHC 070618 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Oct 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Milton is centered near 22.4N 93.4W at 07/0300 UTC or 200 nm WNW of Progreso Mexico, moving E at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas near the center range from 23 to 26 ft. Heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms are occurring from 20N to 21N between 90W and 95W. On the forecast track, Milton is expected to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of Mexico Monday and Tuesday, then approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday. Milton is anticipated to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days and become a major hurricane on Monday. Milton will produce significant rainfall across most of Florida which can lead to urban, areal, river and flash flooding. Large swell generated by Milton will create dangerous surf and rip currents along the west coast of Florida. Hurricane Kirk is centered in the north Atlantic near 38.6N 43.6W at 07/0300 UTC or 780 nm W of the Azores, and moving NE at 22 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas near the center range from 47 to 49 ft. Moderate rain and scattered showers are found up to 150 nm from the center. Kirk will continue to move toward the northeast with an increasing forward speed over the next few days. Although gradual weakening is expected, Kirk is expected to become a large and strong extratropical storm the next couple of days. Swells generated by Kirk continue to impact the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States and portions of Atlantic Canada. These swells will spread to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Leslie is centered near 15.0N 39.4W at 07/0300 UTC or 870 nm W of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, and moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas near the center range from 20 to 22 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 37W and 41W. Leslie is going to continue moving NW and gradually weaken for the next few days. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information south of 31N and west of 35W. For the latest NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public Advisories for all three hurricanes, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 28W from 18N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection seen near this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast near Conakry, then reaches westward to 08N23W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up from 05N to 09N between the Guinea- Sierra Lenore coast and 22W. There is no ITCZ present based on the latest analysis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above on Hurricane Milton. A stationary front stretches northeastward from the central Gulf across a 1007 mb low at 26N85W to beyond central Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across the Florida Straits, including the Yucatan Channel. Fresh to strong NNE to NE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are evident across the northern Gulf. Outside the direct impact from Hurricane Milton, fresh to near-gale winds and seas at 15 to 20 ft are noted for the southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate S to SW to NW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, Hurricane Milton will move to 22.2N 91.9W Mon morning, 22.3N 90.2W Mon evening and 22.9N 88.3W Tue morning. It will then reach 24.2N 86.3W Tue evening, 25.8N 84.5W Wed morning, and inland to 27.5N 82.3W Wed evening. Milton will become extratropical as it moves to 29.6N 77.1W late Thu. Meanwhile, a 1007 mb low pressure is near 26.5N86.5W along a stationary front stretching from near Tampa Bay, Florida through the low to 25N91W. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are north of the front. The low and front will slowly shift east-southeastward through Tue. Conditions should improve across the basin by the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough continues to trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Hispaniola. Otherwise, light to gentle winds along with 1 to 3 ft seas dominate the entire Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas over most of the northwestern basin, including waters south of Cuba to near 19N and the Yucatan Channel along with building seas from late Mon night through Wed evening. Meanwhile, long-period NE swells in the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages from distant Hurricane Kirk will subside through early Mon. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin into the early part of the week. Winds may freshen in the eastern basin midweek due to an incoming tropical wave, spreading to the central Caribbean at the end of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Hurricanes Kirk and Leslie, as well as on Hurricane Milton which may impact the Atlantic waters offshore eastern Florida by mid-week. A weak low is analyzed near 30N59W is producing scattered moderate convection north of 29N between 54W and 57W. Convergent low-level winds are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 26N between 40W and 52W, and east of Lesser Antilles from 10N to 18N between 50W and the Lesser Antilles Islands. Similar conditions are also found farther south of Hurricane Leslie from 06N to 10N between 36W and 45W. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are present north of 23N between 36W and 62W. Otherwise outside the direct influence from Hurricane Leslie, light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft in moderate mixed swells exist for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, Milton will become extratropical as it moves to 29.6N 77.1W late Thu. Expect impacts in the form of increasing winds and building seas in advance of Milton over waters east of Florida beginning late Tue. Otherwise, long period NE to E swells associated with distant Hurricane Kirk will continue to impact the waters east of the Bahamas through tonight, subsiding during the early part of the week. Looking ahead, farther east, swells associated with Hurricane Leslie, forecast to remain east of the area, may impact the waters east of 60W by midweek. $$ Chan