000 AXNT20 KNHC 071804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Oct 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...HURRICANE MILTON IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE NOW... The hazards that will be affecting the land are: storm surge, rainfall, the wind, and the surf. The first place of danger is the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, now. The second place of danger is the western coast of Florida in about 60 hours or less. The center of Hurricane Milton, at 07/1800 UTC, is in the western Gulf of Mexico, close to 21.7N 91.3W. This position is also about 92 nm/170km to the WNW of Progreso in Mexico; and about 700 nm/1130 km to the SW of Tampa in Florida. Milton is moving is moving toward the E, or 100 degrees, 08 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 911 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 135 knots with gusts to 165 knots. The radius of hurricane-force winds is within: 20 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; 25 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; 25 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; 20 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Wind speeds of 50 knots are within: 40 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 40 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 40 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 40 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical storm force winds are: within 70 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 70 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 70 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 70 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are: within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 120 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 210 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea height value is 30 feet. Expect for the next 24 hours or so: strong to near gale-force winds, and rough seas, elsewhere within 25N91W 25N98W 21N98W 18N95W 19N91W 21N90W 25N91W. Moderate seas, and fresh to strong winds, are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward away from Milton. Expect for the next 24 hours or so: strong NE winds, and rough seas, within 28N83W 29N84W 29N89W 26N89W 26N88W 27N84W 28N83W. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 280 nm of 21N93W in the NE quadrant. A stationary front passes through central Florida to a 1005 mb 26N86W low pressure center to 24N89W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from the NW coast of Cuba to 27N in Florida between 80W and 84W, including in the Straits of Florida and in the Florida Keys. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 23N to 28N between 76W and Florida in the Atlantic Ocean. ...Hurricane Leslie... The center of Hurricane Leslie at 07/1500 UTC is close to 16.4N 41.2W. Leslie is moving toward the NW, or 315 degrees 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 75 knots with gusts to 90 knots. Hurricane-force wind speeds are within: 15 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; 10 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; 10 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; 15 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Wind speeds of 50 knots are within: 30 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 20 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 20 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 40 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical storm-force winds are: within 80 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 40 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are: within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea height value is 19 feet. Expect for the next 24 hours or so: strong to near gale- force winds, and rough seas, elsewhere within 18N39W 18N40W 18N43W 15N42W 15N39W 18N39W. Expect also for the next 24 hours or so: winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas in mixed swell, in the remainder of the area within 20N38W 19N42W 17N44W 12N44W 14N40W 15N37W 20N38W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 330 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Please, consult bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W, from 18N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Any precipitation also is close to the monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Africa near 11N15W 08N20W 07N28W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward between 13W and 30W. Numerous strong is at the coast of Africa from 10N to 13N between 13W and 16W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Hurricane MILTON, that is in the SW sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, also, for details about the wind speeds and the sea heights, for the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Milton is near 21.7N 91.7W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving east-southeast at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 933 mb. Milton will move to 21.5N 90.4W this evening, 22.2N 88.3W Tue morning, 23.6N 86.4W Tue evening, 25.5N 84.7W Wed morning, 27.7N 82.8W Wed evening, and 29.2N 80.1W Thu morning. Milton will weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 30.8N 71.0W early Fri. Meanwhile, 1005 mb low pressure is near 26N85.5W along a stationary front stretching from near Tampa Bay, Florida through the low to 24N90W. Fresh to near gale force winds and building seas are north of the front. The low and front will slowly shift east-southeastward through Tue. Conditions should improve across the basin by the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, are in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is spread throughout the entire area. The monsoon trough is along 09N75W in Colombia, through Costa Rica and the western sections of Nicaragua, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N southward from 70W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 07/1200 UTC, are: 0.10 in Curacao; 0.09 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands; 0.02 in Guadeloupe; and 0.01 in Kingston and in Montego Bay, in Jamaica. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Hurricane Milton is near 21.7N 91.7W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving east-southeast at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 933 mb. Milton will move to 21.5N 90.4W this evening, 22.2N 88.3W Tue morning, 23.6N 86.4W Tue evening, 25.5N 84.7W Wed morning, 27.7N 82.8W Wed evening, and 29.2N 80.1W Thu morning. Milton will weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 30.8N 71.0W early Fri. Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas over most of the NW Caribbean, including waters south of Cuba to near 19N and the Yucatan Channel along with building seas from late tonight through Wed night. Meanwhile, long-period NE swells in the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages from former tropical cyclone Kirk will subside today. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin into the early part of the week. Winds may freshen in the eastern Caribbean midweek, spreading to the central Caribbean at the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the Special Features section, for details about Hurricane Leslie, and the nearby wind speeds and sea heights. Moderate to rough seas are to the north of: 33N12W 33N18W 33N24W 27N35W 25N48W 25N60W 30N70W; and from 28N to 31N between 76W and 80W. Moderate seas are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh cyclonic wind flow is from 23N northward between 40W and 64W.Fresh NE winds are from 16N to 24N from 23W eastward. Fresh SE winds are from 03N southward between 20W and 43W. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. A stationary front is along 31N54W, to a 1007 mb 30N58W low pressure center, 28N80W, to the NE coast of Florida along 28N/29N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N to 20N between 50W and 60W, and from 20N northward from 48W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 07/1200 UTC, are: 1.70 in Freeport in the Bahamas. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Hurricane Milton is near 21.7N 91.7W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving east-southeast at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 933 mb. Milton will move to 21.5N 90.4W this evening, 22.2N 88.3W Tue morning, 23.6N 86.4W Tue evening, 25.5N 84.7W Wed morning, 27.7N 82.8W Wed evening, and 29.2N 80.1W Thu morning. Milton will weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 30.8N 71.0W early Fri. Expect impacts in the form of increasing winds and building seas in advance of Milton over waters east of Florida beginning late Tue. Otherwise, long period NE to E swells associated with distant former tropical cyclone Kirk will continue to impact the waters E of the Bahamas through today. Looking ahead, farther E, swells associated with Hurricane Leslie, forecast to remain E of the area, may impact the waters E of 60W by midweek. $$ mt/al