000 AXNT20 KNHC 072353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Oct 08 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Very powerful Hurricane Milton is centered near 21.8N 90.8W at 07/2100 UTC or 70 nm WNW of Progreso Mexico, moving E at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 905 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 155 kt with gusts to 190 kt. Peak seas are estimated to be up to 40 ft. Satellite imagery shows that Milton has a small eye, about 10 nm in diameter, with a very strong eyewall presentation. The imagery show numerous strong convection within 90 nm of the eye, except 120 nm in the SW quadrant. Similar convection is to the northeast within 60 nm of 23N90W. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere from 20N to 25N between 88W and 93W. Milton is forecast to maintain its eastward motion through tonight followed by a turn toward the east-northeast and northeast on Tue and Wed. On the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Tue, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula on Wed. Milton is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals 4 to 7 inches across the Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swell generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Leslie is centered near 17.4N 42.1W at 07/2100 UTC or 1030 nm W of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are estimated to be around 19 ft. Leslie's convective organization became a little less organized during the afternoon. Satellite imagery shows numerous strong convection within 90 nm in the NW semicircle and 60 nm in the SE SE semicircle. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 19N to 20N between 42W and 45W. Leslie is forecast to maintain its present motion over the next few days. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public Advisories for Hurricane Milton and Hurricane Leslie at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave that is west of the Cabo Verde Islands has its axis along 29W from 04N to 18N. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the southern part of the wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 53W from 07N to 20N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Only small isolated showers are from 07N to 12N between 50W and 55W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends west-southwestward to near 07N30W. No ITCZ is analyzed in the Atlantic basin at the present time. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm northwest of the trough between 16W and 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for more information on Category 5 Hurricane Milton. To the east-northeast of Hurricane Milton, a stationary front extends from South Florida to low pressure of 1005 mb near 26N85W. A cold front extends from the low to near 24N89W. Latest ASCAT satellite data passes revealed fresh to strong northeast to east winds north of the low as well as north of the stationary front. Seas are 7 to 10ft north of the front. Gentle to moderate winds and seas 3 to 5 in west swell are south of the front and east of Milton, except for fresh southwest winds over the southeastern Gulf waters along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. In addition to the convection related to Milton, scattered showers and thunderstorms are south of 27N and east of 89W. se within 135 nm in the SE quadrant of the low, with similar convection over the Straits of Florida. For the forecast, Hurricane Milton will move to 21.9N 89.4W Tue morning, 22.7N 87.4W Tue afternoon, 24.2N 85.6W Wed morning, 26.1N 84.0W Wed afternoon, inland to 27.9N 82.6W Thu morning, and 29.2N 79.5W Thu afternoon. Milton will weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 30.5N 71.0W Fri afternoon. Meanwhile, 1005 mb low pressure is near 26N85.5W along a stationary front stretching from near Tampa Bay, Florida through the low to 24N88W. Fresh to near gale force winds and building seas are north of the front. The low and front will slowly shift east- southeastward through Tue. Conditions should improve across the basin by the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A diffluent pattern aloft persists over the NW Caribbean while a rather narrow upper-level trough extends from the Windward Passage to the northeast portion of Nicaragua. This upper-level pattern is helping to induce convection over most of western and central Cuba. Convection is mainly limited across the remainder of the basin. A weak pressure pattern at the surface due to distant Hurricane Kirk in the central Atlantic and major Hurricane Milton in the Gulf of Mexico disrupting the typical Atlantic ridging is resulting in fairly benign conditions across the Caribbean basin with light and variable winds. Seas are mainly 2 ft or less west of 74W, and 2 to 3 ft east of 74W, except higher in and near Atlantic passages due to decaying long- period swells previously generated by Hurricane Kirk. For the forecast, Milton will move to 21.9N 91.3W this afternoon, 22.2N 89.4W Tue morning, 23.1N 87.5W Tue afternoon, 24.7N 85.7W Wed morning, 26.4N 83.9W Wed afternoon, and inland to 28.1N 81.7W Thu morning. Milton will weaken as an extratropical cyclone over the Atlantic at 30.0N 75.5W early Fri. Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas over most of the NW Caribbean, including waters south of Cuba to near 19N and the Yucatan Channel along with building seas from late tonight through Wed night. Meanwhile, long-period NE swells in the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages from distant Hurricane Kirk will subside today. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin into the early part of the week. Winds may freshen in the eastern Caribbean midweek due to an incoming tropical wave, spreading to the central Caribbean at the end of the week, with moderate winds also developing ahead of the tropical wave by mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Hurricane Leslie as well as on Hurricane Milton which is expected to impact the Atlantic waters offshore eastern Florida starting Wed. Lingering and decaying swell from former Hurricane Kirk are still impacting waters north of 22N and east of the Bahamas to 35W or so, with life-threatening surf conditions at coastal locations. Please consult your local meteorological agency for any details on such. A weak low is analyzed near 30N58W. A stationary front extends northeastward from the low through 31N54W and southwestward from the low to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida. Well to the east of the stationary frontal boundary, a weak 1017 mb high is analyzed near 27N29W. Associated weak high pressure covers the the eastern Atlantic while a rather weak pressure pattern remains elsewhere. As for seas, large residual swell from former Hurricane Kirk are present north of 27N and east of 58W. Seas being produced by this swell are 8 to 10 ft. Seas are about 4 to 7 ft away from Hurricane Leslie. For the forecast west of 55W, major Hurricane Milton will move to 21.9N 89.4W Tue morning, 22.7N 87.4W Tue afternoon, 24.2N 85.6W Wed morning, 26.1N 84.0W Wed afternoon, inland to 27.9N 82.6W Thu morning, and 29.2N 79.5W Thu afternoon. Milton will weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 30.5N 71.0W Fri afternoon. Expect increasing winds and building seas in advance of Milton over waters east of Florida beginning late Tue. Farther E, swell associated with Hurricane Leslie is forecast to remain E of the area, but may impact the waters E of 60W by Wed. $$ Aguirre