000 AXNT20 KNHC 080622 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Oct 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Milton is centered near 21.8N 89.9W at 08/0300 UTC or 30 nm NNW of Progreso Mexico, and moving E at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 914 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt. Peak seas near the center are from 29 to 31 ft. Latest IR satellite imagery shows a small, cloud-filled eye. Heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms are occurring up to 120 nm in a NW semicircle, and up to 75 nm in a SE semicircle from the center. Milton is expected to continue on an E to ENE motion and pass north of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight through Tuesday, then turn toward the NE and approach the west coast of Florida Wednesday. Some fluctuation in intensity is anticipated but Milton will remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida. Significant rainfall is forecast across much of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday, with many areas are already saturated by recent rainfall, further increasing the threat of areal, urban, river and even flash flooding. Large swell produced by Milton will arrive at the west and south coast of Florida, including the Florida Keys by Wednesday morning, causing dangerous surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local forecast weather office. Hurricane Leslie is centered near 18.4N 43.5W at 08/0300 UTC or 1115 nm WNW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, and moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas near the center are from 23 to 25 ft. Heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms are seen up to 140 nm in a W semicircle, and up to 30 nm in a E semicircle from the center. A NW motion will continue through Wednesday before turning toward the N on Thursday. A gradual weakening trend is still anticipated for the next several days. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public Advisories for both hurricanes, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 30W from 18N southward, and moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 26W and 28W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W from 17N southward, and moving westward around 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is found from 07N to 10N between 48W and 55W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Gambian coast, then extends southwestward to near 06N29W. No ITCZ is analyzed in the Atlantic basin at the present time. Scattered moderate convection is present near the trough from 08N to 11N between 17W and 23W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section on dangerous Hurricane Milton. A stationary front reaches eastward from 26N87W through a 1004 mb low at 26N83W to beyond southern Florida. Scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are noted across the Florida Straits, including the Florida Keys, Farther west, convergent southerly winds are producing similar conditions near the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate S to WSW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present for the Florida Straits, including the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas exist across the northern Gulf, north of 28N. For the rest of the Gulf outside the direct impact of Hurricane Milton, strong to near-gale NW to N to ENE winds and seas at 8 to 15 ft exist. For the forecast, Hurricane Milton will move to 22.3N 88.6W Tue morning, 23.5N 86.7W Tue evening, and 25.0N 84.9W Wed morning. Afterward, it is expect to reach 27.1N 83.3W Wed evening, inland at 28.6N 80.9W Thu morning, and 29.4N 77.6W Thu evening. Milton is expected to weaken as an extratropical cyclone over the Atlantic at 30.3N 69.5W late Fri. The 1004 mb low and stationary front will slowly shift east-southeastward through Tue. Conditions should improve across the basin by the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough is enhancing isolated thunderstorms over the northern basin, near Jamaica, Hispaniola and the eastern basin. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean basin. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are evident east of the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, as Hurricane Milton moves across the Florida Straits, expect increasing winds and building seas over the northwestern basin, including waters south of Cuba to near 19N and the Yucatan Channel, late tonight through Wed night. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin into the early part of the week. Winds may freshen in the eastern basin midweek, spreading to the central basin at the end of the week as a tropical wave moves across the area. Also, moderate to fresh northerly winds may funnel from the Yucatan Channel southward to offshore eastern Honduras and Nicaragua as Milton drags a front or trough into the western basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Hurricane Leslie as well as on Hurricane Milton which is expected to impact the Atlantic waters offshore eastern Florida starting Wed. A stationary front stretches east-northeastward from a 1004 mb low off West Palm Beach, Florida across 28N60W to beyond 31N at 52W. Widely scattered showers are noted up to 100 nm along either side of the front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the low and near northwest and central Bahama. Convergent southerly winds are inducing scattered moderate convection east and northeast of the Leeward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are evident north of 25N between 38W and 52W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted off the Florida east coast, including the northwest Bahamas. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and 5 to 6 ft seas in moderate northerly swells dominate north of 21N between 35W and the Florida-Georgia coast. South of 21N outside of Hurricane Leslie, mainly gentle E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast west of 55W, after crossing Florida and exiting into the western Atlantic on Thursday, Milton will weaken as an extratropical cyclone at 30.3N 69.5W late Fri. Expect increasing winds and building seas in advance of Milton over waters east of Florida beginning late Tue. Farther east, swells associated with Hurricane Leslie, forecast to remain east of the area, may impact the waters east of 60W by midweek. $$ Chan