000 AXNT20 KNHC 080911 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Oct 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Milton is centered near 22.3N 88.9W at 08/0900 UTC or 70 nm NE of Progreso Mexico, moving ENE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 924 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. Peak seas are estimated to be around 38 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the center, except 210 nm in the E quadrant due to a band that extends out from Milton around the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula including through the western Yucatan Channel. A turn toward the east-northeast and northeast is expected today and Wed. On the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula on Wed. The hurricane is forecast to make landfall in Florida Wed night. Milton is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida. Areas of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of Florida well ahead of Milton through early Thu. This rainfall brings the risk of life-threatening flash, urban and aerial flooding along with moderate to major river flooding. Flooding will be exacerbated in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall threat. Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Recently downgraded Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 18.8N 44.2W at 08/0900 UTC or 1160 nm WNW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are estimated to be around 24 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm in the E semicircle, and 210 nm in the W semicircle. Leslie is moving toward the northwest and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north on Thu. Leslie should gradually weaken during the next several days. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public Advisories for Major Hurricane Milton and Tropical Storm Leslie, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 30.5W from 18N southward, and moving westward around 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 24W and 30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 17N southward, and moving westward around 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is found from 08N to 10N between 50W and 55W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N16W, then extends southwestward to near 06N29.5W. No ITCZ is analyzed in the Atlantic basin at the present time. Widely scattered moderate convection is present near the trough from 07N to 10N between 20W and 25W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section on Major and Dangerous Hurricane Milton. A stationary front reaches eastward from near Marco Island, Florida and Cape Sable to a 1004 mb low at 26N82.5W to 26N87W. Scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are noted across the Straits of Florida, including portions of the Florida Keys, Farther west, convergent southerly winds are producing similar conditions near the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft are present from just west of the Straits of Florida, including the Yucatan Channel. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and 7 to 11 ft seas exist across the northern Gulf north of the front except gentle to moderate winds in the NW Gulf in the Louisiana and Texas coastal waters. For the forecast, Milton will move to 22.9N 87.5W this afternoon, 24.2N 85.8W Wed morning, 26.0N 84.2W Wed afternoon, 27.6N 82.6W Thu morning, 28.8N 79.9W Thu afternoon, and weaken as an extratropical cyclone over the Atlantic near 29.7N 76.5W Fri morning. Milton will change little in intensity as it moves to 30.4N 69.9W early Sat. Meanwhile, 1004 mb low pressure is near 26N83W along a stationary front stretching from near Marco Island, Florida through the low to 25N87W. Fresh to near gale force winds and building seas are north of the front. The low and front will slowly shift east-southeastward today. Conditions should improve across the basin by the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section on Major and Dangerous Hurricane Milton near the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean basin. A band of deep convection associated with Major and Dangerous Hurricane Milton centered just off the NW coast of the Yucatan has formed from the western Yucatan Channel to across the coast of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula with frequent lightning. Winds across most of the basin are light, mainly SE to S, except higher near the thunderstorms. Seas are 3 ft or less, except high in and near Atlantic passages and near the thunderstorms. For the forecast, Milton will move to 22.9N 87.5W this afternoon, 24.2N 85.8W Wed morning, 26.0N 84.2W Wed afternoon, 27.6N 82.6W Thu morning, 28.8N 79.9W Thu afternoon, and weaken as an extratropical cyclone over the Atlantic near 29.7N 76.5W Fri morning. Milton will change little in intensity as it moves to 30.4N 69.9W early Sat. Expect increasing winds and building seas over most of the NW Caribbean, including waters south of Cuba to near 19N and the Yucatan Channel, this morning through Wed night. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin into the early part of the week. Winds may freshen in the eastern Caribbean midweek, spreading to the central Caribbean at the end of the week as a tropical wave moves across the area. Also, Moderate to fresh northerly winds may funnel from the Yucatan Channel southward to offshore eastern Honduras and Nicaragua as Milton drags a front or trough into the western Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Major and Dangerous Hurricane Milton which is expected to impact the Atlantic waters offshore eastern Florida starting Wed, and on Tropical Storm Leslie. A cold front extends from 31N52W to 26N64W then becomes stationary to a 1004 mb low between the northern Bahamas and Florida across the gulf stream at 26.5N79.5W. Fresh to strong winds were noted by earlier ASCAT scatterometer data within 150 nm in the NE semicircle of the low where seas may be up to 8 ft. Scattered thunderstorms are noted within within 410 nm in the SE semicircle of the low. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible elsewhere near the front. Moderate to fresh winds are north of 27N east of the front to around 35W, where seas are 7 to 11 ft in mainly remnant swell from ex-Kirk. Elsewhere, ridging prevails from high pressure centered near 27.5N27W to the SE Bahamas. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the waters outside of the influence of the Ex-Kirk swell, the low off Florida/Bahamas, and Leslie. For the forecast west of 55W, Milton will move to 22.9N 87.5W this afternoon, 24.2N 85.8W Wed morning, 26.0N 84.2W Wed afternoon, 27.6N 82.6W Thu morning, 28.8N 79.9W Thu afternoon, and weaken as an extratropical cyclone over the Atlantic near 29.7N 76.5W Fri morning. Milton will change little in intensity as it moves to 30.4N 69.9W early Sat. Expect increasing winds and building seas in advance of Milton over waters east of Florida beginning late tonight. Meanwhile, 1001 mb low pressure between the northern Bahamas and Florida near 27N79W with fresh to strong winds and along a stationary front from 30N55W to the low will shift NE and move north of 31N Wed night. Winds may increase to at least near gale force with this low. Farther E, swells associated with Hurricane Leslie, forecast to remain E of the area, may impact the waters E of 60W by midweek. $$ Lewitsky