000 AXNT20 KNHC 081804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Oct 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...HURRICANE MILTON IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE NOW... The hazards that will be affecting the land are: storm surge, rainfall, the wind, tornadoes, and the surf. The next place of danger is the western coast of Florida in about 36 hours to 42 hours or so. The center of Hurricane Milton, at 08/1800 UTC, is in the western Gulf of Mexico, close to 22.5N 88.2W. This position is also about 111 nm/205 km to the NE of Progreso in Mexico; and about 454 nm/840 km to the SW of Tampa in Florida. Milton is moving is moving toward the ENE, or 065 degrees, 07 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 923 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 135 knots with gusts to 165 knots. The radius of hurricane-force winds is within: 25 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; 25 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; 25 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; 25 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Wind speeds of 50 knots are within: 45 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 45 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 45 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 45 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical storm force winds are: within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 80 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 80 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are: within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 75 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 270 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 240 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea height value is 32 feet. Expect for the next 24 hours or so: strong to near gale-force winds, and rough seas, elsewhere within 25N91W 25N98W 21N98W 18N95W 19N91W 21N90W 25N91W. Moderate seas, and fresh to strong winds, are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward away from Milton. Expect for the next 24 hours or so: strong to near gale-force winds, and rough seas, within 28N86W 26N92W 22N96W 19N96W 19N88W 22N84W 28N86W. Expect also for the next 24 hours: winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas, in the remainder of the area that is within 26N86W 28N88W 24N97W 19N96W 19N91W 23N94W 26N86W. Precipitation: numerous strong is from 20N to 24N between 87W and 90W. within 280 nm of 21N93W in the NE quadrant; and from 23N to 26N between 85W and 88W. A stationary front is along 25N/26N from 84W eastward to the Bahamas. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 24N to 27N from 85W eastward. ...TROPICAL STORM LESLIE... The center of Tropical Storm Leslie at 08/1500 UTC is close to 19.4N 45.6W. Leslie is moving toward the NW, or 310 degrees 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots. Wind speeds of 50 knots are within: 30 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 30 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 20 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 40 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical storm-force winds are: within 80 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 40 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are: within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea height value is 25 feet. Expect for the next 24 hours or so: strong to near gale- force winds, and rough seas, elsewhere within 21N43W 22N45W 21N47W 19N47W 18N45W 20N43W 21N43W. Expect also for the next 24 hours or so: winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas in mixed swell, in the remainder of the area within 20N41W 23N41W 23N46W 19N48W 16N48W 15N46W 20N41W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 18N to 23N between 45W and 48W. Please, consult bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W, from 18N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 250 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 04N to 09N. This precipitation also is close to the monsoon trough. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W, from 18N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 270 nm to the west of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the SW coastal plains of Senegal, to 04N30W 06N38W. The ITCZ continues from 06N38W, to 07N48W 08N53W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Hurricane MILTON, that is in the south central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, also, for details about the wind speeds and the sea heights, for the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Major Hurricane Milton is near 22.7N 88.4W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving east-northeast at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 929 mb. Milton will move to 23.6N 87.2W this evening, 25.2N 85.5W Wed morning, 26.8N 83.8W Wed evening, inland to 28.1N 81.5W Thu morning, 29.1N 78.4W Thu evening, and weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 29.7N 74.9W Fri morning. Milton will change little in intensity as it moves to near 30.4N 67.9W early Sat. Conditions should improve across the basin by the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh southerly winds are from 17N northward between Jamaica and 83W. Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is spread throughout the entire area. The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, beyond southern Nicaragua, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N southward from 73W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 08/1200 UTC, are: 0.95 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; 0.72 in Merida in Mexico; 0.19 in Guadeloupe; 0.07 in Curacao; and 0.02 in Montego Bay in Jamaica. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Major Hurricane Milton is near 22.7N 88.4W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving east-northeast at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 929 mb. Milton will move to 23.6N 87.2W this evening, 25.2N 85.5W Wed morning, 26.8N 83.8W Wed evening, inland to 28.1N 81.5W Thu morning, 29.1N 78.4W Thu evening, and weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 29.7N 74.9W Fri morning. Milton will change little in intensity as it moves to near 30.4N 67.9W early Sat. Expect increasing winds and building seas over most of the NW Caribbean, including waters south of Cuba to near 19N and the Yucatan Channel, through Wed night. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin into the early part of the week. Winds may freshen in the eastern Caribbean midweek, spreading to the central Caribbean at the end of the week as a tropical wave moves across the area. Moderate to fresh northerly winds may funnel from the Yucatan Channel southward to offshore eastern Honduras and Nicaragua as Milton drags a front or trough into the western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the Special Features section, for details about Hurricane Leslie, and the nearby wind speeds and sea heights. Moderate to rough seas are to the north of: 31N14W 27N27W 27N60W 30N70W. Moderate seas are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh SW winds are to the north of 25N46W 31N23W. Fresh NE winds are from 16N to 25N from 26W eastward. Fresh SE winds are from 08N to 15N between 50W and 60W. Fresh easterly winds are from 05N southward between 40W and 50W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are from 06N southward between 12W and 25W. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. A stationary front is along 31N49W, to 29N60W 28N70W, to a 1003 mb 27N78W low pressure center, beyond 26N81W in Florida. Slight to some moderate seas are from the stationary front southward between 70W and 80W. Moderate seas are from the stationary front northward from 70W westward. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 25N to 28N between 70W and Florida. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 18N northward from 40W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 08/1200 UTC, are: 0.91 in Freeport in the Bahamas; and 0.17 in Nassau in the Bahamas. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 27N26W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 19N northward from 41W eastward. Major Hurricane Milton is near 22.7N 88.4W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving east-northeast at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 929 mb. Milton will move to 23.6N 87.2W this evening, 25.2N 85.5W Wed morning, 26.8N 83.8W Wed evening, inland to 28.1N 81.5W Thu morning, 29.1N 78.4W Thu evening, and weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 29.7N 74.9W Fri morning. Milton will change little in intensity as it moves to near 30.4N 67.9W early Sat. Expect increasing winds and building seas in advance of Milton over waters east of Florida beginning late tonight. Meanwhile, 1003 mb low pressure between the northern Bahamas and Florida near 27N79W with fresh to strong winds and along a stationary front from 30N55W to the low will shift NE and move north of 31N Wed night. Winds may increase to at least near gale force with this low. Farther E, swells associated with Hurricane Leslie, forecast to remain E of the area, may impact the waters E of 60W by midweek. $$ mt/al