000 AXNT20 KNHC 082358 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Oct 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...MAJOR HURRICANE MILTON... Hurricane Milton is centered near 22.7N 87.5W at 08/2100 UTC or 280 nm WSW of the Dry Tortugas, moving ENE at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 918 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt. Peak seas are 33 ft, but 12 ft seas extends as far as 300 nm w of the center of Milton. Numerous strong convection is from 20N to 24N between 85W and 90W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is also ahead of Milton on the SE Gulf from 23N to 27N between 81W and 86W. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin tonight and continue through early Thursday. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move off the east coast of Florida over the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday. Fluctuations in intensity are likely while Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night. ...HURRICANE LESLIE... Hurricane Leslie is centered near 20.0N 46.4W at 08/2100 UTC or 1290 nm WNW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are 27 ft, but 12 ft seas extend as far as 120 nm from the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 18N to 23N between 45W and 49W. A general motion towards the northwest is expected to continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn to the north Wednesday night and to the northeast by Friday. Little change in strength is expected through Wednesday night. Weakening is expected to begin Thursday. Please, consult bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic from 04N to 18N with axis near 32W, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is confined to the vicinity of the monsoon from 03N to 09N between 23W and 36W. A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles from 07N to 17N with axis near 58W, moving westward 10 knots. Only isolated showers are within the wave environment. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through SW Senegal near 13N17W and continues along 05N30W to 06N38W. The ITCZ continues from 06N38W to 07N53W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 10N between 38W and 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... Major Hurricane Milton is near 22.7N 87.5W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving east-northeast at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 918 mb. See the Special Features section for further details about Milton. To the north of Milton, a cold front extends from Cedar Key to the north-central Gulf near 27N90W and then extends to NE Mexico near 25N97W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are behind the front with moderate seas. In the remainder western Gulf winds are fresh to locally strong from the NNW and rough seas between 8-20 ft are ongoing associated with Milton. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Milton will move to 23.8N 86.4W Wed morning, 25.6N 84.7W Wed afternoon, 27.2N 82.8W Thu morning, inland to 28.1N 80.7W Thu afternoon, 28.6N 77.9W Fri morning, and weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 29.0N 75.0W Fri afternoon. Milton will change little in intensity as it moves to near 30.6N 68.5W Sat afternoon. Conditions should improve across the basin by the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Major Hurricane Milton is in the SE Gulf of Mexico near 22.7N 87.5W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving east-northeast at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 918 mb. Fresh to strong SSW winds and rough seas to 10 ft associated with Milton are affecting the NW Caribbean N of 17N W of 82W. A low pressure NE of Freeport in the Bahamas is supporting gentle to moderate SE wind flow over the E Caribbean and slight seas. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere across the basin with slight seas. For the forecast, Milton will move to 23.8N 86.4W Wed morning, 25.6N 84.7W Wed afternoon, 27.2N 82.8W Thu morning, inland to 28.1N 80.7W Thu afternoon, 28.6N 77.9W Fri morning, and weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 29.0N 75.0W Fri afternoon. Milton will change little in intensity as it moves to near 30.6N 68.5W Sat afternoon. Expect increasing winds and building seas over most of the NW Caribbean, including waters south of Cuba to near 19N and the Yucatan Channel, through Wed night. Elsewhere, winds may freshen in the eastern Caribbean midweek, spreading to the central Caribbean at the end of the week as a tropical wave moves across the area. Moderate to fresh northerly winds may funnel from the Yucatan Channel southward to offshore eastern Honduras and Nicaragua as Milton drags a front or trough into the western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the Special Features section, for details about Hurricane Leslie and Major Hurricane Milton. Major Hurricane Milton is in the SE Gulf of Mexico near 22.7N 87.5W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving east-northeast at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 918 mb. Hurricane Leslie is near 20.0N 46.4W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving northwest at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Meanwhile, a 1002 mb low pressure NE of Freeport near 27N75W is producing gale force winds SE of the low center and numerous heavy showers from 24N to 29N between 69W and 74W. Aside from the two systems currently in the basin, a stationary front extends from 31N48W SW to the low NE of the Bahamas to S Florida near 26N80W. Otherwise, surface high pressure and associated ridging dominate the E subtropical Atlantic waters and support moderate to fresh NE winds between the coast of W Africa and 34W. For the forecast W of 55W, Milton will move to 23.8N 86.4W Wed morning, 25.6N 84.7W Wed afternoon, 27.2N 82.8W Thu morning, inland to 28.1N 80.7W Thu afternoon, 28.6N 77.9W Fri morning, and weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 29.0N 75.0W Fri afternoon. Milton will change little in intensity as it moves to near 30.6N 68.5W Sat afternoon. Expect increasing winds and building seas in advance of Milton over waters east of Florida beginning late tonight. The low NE of Freeport will shift NE with gales continuing in the SE quadrant until the low moves N of the area Wed night. Farther E, swells associated with Hurricane Leslie, forecast to remain E of the area, may impact the waters E of 60W by midweek. $$ Ramos