000 AXNT20 KNHC 090620 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Oct 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... MAJOR HURRICANE MILTON: Hurricane Milton is centered near 23.4N 86.5W at 09/0300 UTC or 210 nm WSW of the Dry Tortugas, and moving NE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 915 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 140 kt with gusts to 175 kt. Peak seas near the center are 35 to 38 ft. Heavy rain and scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring up to 60 nm in a NW semicircle, and up to 100 nm in a SE semicircle from the center. Scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms are seen farther east, from near western Cuba northward to 26N. A NE motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through Wednesday, allowing Milton to cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Milton is going to make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, then turn ENE and move across central Florida into the western Atlantic on Thursday. Fluctuation in intensity is anticipated but Milton will remain a major hurricane until landfall. Please refer to products issued by the local forecast office. HURRICANE LESLIE: Hurricane Leslie is centered near 20.7N 47.7W at 09/0300 UTC or 920 nm ENE of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, and moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas near the center are 27 to 29 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 20N to 22N between 20W and 29W. Leslie is expected to slow down while turning toward the N and then NNE over the next few days. Some minor strengthening is forecasted for the short term, then a rapid weakening trend by Friday. Western Atlantic Gales: A 1002 mb frontal low pressure near 28N73W will continue to produce near-gale to gale S to SW winds along with 8 to 11 ft seas in its vicinity, as it moves northeastward through Wednesday evening. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on both Milton and Leslie, visit www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W from 17N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 08N between 32W and 35W. Another tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles near 57W from 17N southward, and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Being surrounded by low to mid-level dry air, no significant convection is found near this feature. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Gambian coast, then curves southwestward to 07N21W. An ITCZ continues westward from 07N21W to 07N32W, then continues northwestward from 05N36W to 09N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 80 nm along either side of the ITCZ. There is no significant convection related to the monsoon trough. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for more details on dangerous Hurricane Milton. A dissipating stationary front is causing scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms near the Florida Keys. Outside the direct impact from Hurricane Milton, strong to near-gale winds with 12 to 28 ft seas dominate the south-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate N winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in large easterly swells are evident across the western Gulf. Fresh to strong N to ENE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Milton will move to 24.7N 85.3W Wed morning, 26.5N 83.6W Wed evening, then inland to 27.9N 81.4W Thu morning. It will move across central Florida to 28.5N 78.8W Thu evening, 29.0N 75.5W Fri morning, and weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 29.4N 72.0W Fri evening. Milton will change little in intensity as it moves near 30.4N 65.0W late Sat. Conditions should improve across the basin Fri night into Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent southerly winds feeding toward Hurricane Hilton are causing isolated strong thunderstorms over the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Modest divergent flow aloft is triggering isolated thunderstorms for the central and eastern basin. Moderate to locally strong SW winds and seas of 5 to 9 ft are present at the northwestern basin. Gentle to moderate ESE to S winds and 2 to 5 ft seas exist elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, Milton will change little in intensity as it moves near 30.4N 65.0W late Sat. Expect increasing winds and building seas over most of the NW basin, including waters south of Cuba to near 19N and the Yucatan Channel, through Wed night. Elsewhere, winds may freshen in the eastern basin midweek, spreading to the central basin at the end of the week as a tropical wave moves across the area. Moderate to fresh northerly winds may funnel from the Yucatan Channel southward to offshore eastern Honduras and Nicaragua as Milton drags a front or trough into the western Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section, for details about Hurricane Leslie and Major Hurricane Milton, gale winds in the western Atlantic. A stationary front extends west-southwestward from the north- central Atlantic across 31N50W to a 1002 mb low near 28N73W, then continues as a dissipating front to southern Florida. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up south and southeast of the low from 24N to 28N between 67W and 73W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the gale winds, moderate to strong NE to S to SW winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident north of 25N between 65W and the Florida-Georgia coast. For the forecast W of 55W, Milton will move to 28.5N 78.8W Thu evening, 29.0N 75.5W Fri morning, and weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 29.4N 72.0W Fri evening. Milton will change little in intensity as it moves near 30.4N 65.0W late Sat. Expect increasing winds and building seas in advance of Milton over waters east of Florida on Wed into Wed night. Meanwhile, 1002 mb low pressure near 28N73W is producing gale force winds SE of the low center. The low will shift NE with gales continuing in the SE quadrant until the low moves N of the area Wed night. Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for additional tropical or subtropical development over the next day or so while the low moves northeastward to east-northeastward at around 15 mph. Upper-level winds are likely to increase further by Wednesday night, which should end any chances for further development. This system has a low chance of development in 48 hours and 7 days. Farther E, swells associated with Hurricane Leslie, forecast to remain E of the area, may impact the waters E of 60W Wed into Th. $$ Chan