000 AXNT20 KNHC 091031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Oct 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... MAJOR HURRICANE MILTON: Hurricane Milton is centered near 24.5N 85.4W at 09/0900 UTC or 140 nm W of the Dry Tortugas, moving NE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 907 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 140 kt with gusts to 170 kt, making it a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The 12 ft seas extend 360 nm in the W semicircle and 150 nm in E semicircle with peak seas near 40 ft. Heavy rain and scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring from 23N to 29N between 79W and 87W. A turn toward the east- northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida late tonight or early Thursday morning, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean Thursday afternoon.Milton is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west- central coast of Florida. Please refer to products issued by the local forecast office. HURRICANE LESLIE: Hurricane Leslie is centered near 21.2N 47.8W at 09/0900 UTC or 880 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. The 12 ft seas extend 120 nm from the center except 75 nm in the SE quadrant with peak seas near 27 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 20N to 23N between 46W and 50W. Leslie is expected to slow down while turning toward the N and then NNE over the next few days. Some minor strengthening is forecasted for the short term, then a rapid weakening trend by Friday. Western Atlantic Gales (AL93): A 1002 mb low pressure near 29N72W is producing gale force winds SE of the low as confirmed by overnight scatterometer data. Gale force winds will continue to move along the low through Thu when the low moves N of the forecast waters. Seas will be 8 to 14 ft within the vicinity of the low through the next day, then slowly subside as the low weakens Thu into Fri. Although environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for additional development, a short-lived tropical or subtropical storm could form today or this evening while the low moves northeastward to east-northeastward at around 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to increase later tonight, which should limit any chances for further development. This system has a medium chance of development in 48 hours and 7 days. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on both Milton and Leslie, visit www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 19N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 08N between 29W and 40W. Another tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles near 58W from 17N southward, and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 08N to 10N between 56W and 58W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N17W to 07N21W and the ITCZ extends from 07N21W to 06N33W and then from 05N37W to 10N55W. Scattered moderate convection, outside of the tropical waves, is noted from 05N to 11N between 23W and 29W and from 07N to 11N between 41W and 54W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for more details on dangerous Hurricane Milton. Outside the direct impact from Hurricane Milton, strong to near- gale winds with very rough to high seas dominate the south- central Gulf. Gentle to moderate N winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in large easterly swells are evident across the western Gulf. Fresh to strong N to ENE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Milton will move to 25.9N 84.3W this afternoon, inland to 27.4N 82.6W Thu morning, 28.2N 80.5W Thu afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 28.8N 76.8W Fri morning, become extratropical and move to 29.1N 73.0W Fri afternoon, and 29.7N 69.2W Sat morning. Milton will change little in intensity as it moves near 31.3N 62.0W early Sun. Conditions should improve across the basin Fri night into Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent southerly winds feeding toward Hurricane Milton are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean. Moderate to strong SW winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are present at the northwestern basin. Gentle to moderate ESE to S winds and 2 to 5 ft seas exist elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, Milton will move to 25.9N 84.3W this afternoon, inland to 27.4N 82.6W Thu morning, 28.2N 80.5W Thu afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 28.8N 76.8W Fri morning, become extratropical and move to 29.1N 73.0W Fri afternoon, and 29.7N 69.2W Sat morning. Milton will change little in intensity as it moves near 31.3N 62.0W early Sun. Expect strong winds over the NW Caribbean to improve by tonight, with rough seas persisting through Fri. Elsewhere, winds may freshen in the eastern Caribbean midweek, spreading to the central Caribbean at the end of the week as a tropical wave moves across the area. Moderate to fresh northerly winds may funnel from the Yucatan Channel southward to offshore eastern Honduras and Nicaragua as Milton drags a front or trough into the western Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section, for details about Hurricane Leslie and Major Hurricane Milton, and AL93 in the western Atlantic. A stationary front extends west-southwestward from the north- central Atlantic across 31N51W to a 1002 mb low near 29N72W, then continues as a dissipating front to South Florida. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up south and southeast of the low from 23N to 30N between 62W and 72W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the gale winds, moderate to strong NE to S to SW winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident north of 25N between 65W and the Florida-Georgia coast. For the forecast W of 55W, Milton will move to 25.9N 84.3W this afternoon, inland to 27.4N 82.6W Thu morning, 28.2N 80.5W Thu afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 28.8N 76.8W Fri morning, become extratropical and move to 29.1N 73.0W Fri afternoon, and 29.7N 69.2W Sat morning. Milton will change little in intensity as it moves to near 31.3N 62.0W early Sun. Meanwhile, 1002 mb low pressure near 29N72W is producing gale force winds SE of the low center. The low will shift NE with gales continuing in the SE quadrant until the low moves N of the area Thu. Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for additional development, a short-lived tropical or subtropical storm could form today or this evening while the low moves northeastward to east-northeastward at around 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to increase later tonight, which should limit any chances for further development. This system has a medium chance of development in 48 hours and 7 days. Farther E, swells associated with Hurricane Leslie, forecast to remain E of the area, may impact the waters E of 60W today through Thu night. $$ AReinhart