435 AXNT20 KNHC 091759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Oct 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1755 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Milton is centered near 26.3N 84.0W at 09/1800 UTC or 110 nm W of Ft. Myers Florida, moving NNE at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Numerous strong convection is observed within 140 nm of the center, especially in the eastern semicircle, and scattered moderate to isolated strong within 300 nm of the center, especially in the northern semicircle. The storm activity is also impacting the waters off NE Florida. Peak seas near the center are 37 ft. Milton is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west- central coast of Florida tonight, and remain at hurricane strength while it moves across the Florida peninsula through Thursday. Gradual weakening is forecast while Milton moves eastward over the western Atlantic, and it is likely to become an extratropical storm by early Friday. A northeastward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through this evening. A turn toward the east- northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean on Thursday. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. Please refer to products issued by the local forecast office. Hurricane Leslie is centered near 21.7N 48.4W at 09/1500 UTC or 860 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous strong convection is observed within 80 nm of the center and scattered moderate to isolated strong within 120 nm of the center. Peak seas near the center are 26 ft. Some additional strengthening is likely today and tonight, followed by weakening through early next week. A slight reduction in forward speed and turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast during the next few days. Western Atlantic Gale Warning (AL93): A 1000 mb low pressure system located 30N69W is producing gale force winds SE of the low as confirmed by scatterometer data. Strong to near gale-force cyclonic winds are noted north of 25N and between 60W and 72W. Seas of 8-14 ft are occurring north of 25N and between 57W and 75W. The low will shift NE with gales continuing in the SE quadrant until the low moves N of the area Thu. Environmental conditions are becoming less favorable for tropical or subtropical development today while the low moves northeastward to east-northeastward at around 15 mph. Upper-level winds are expected to become too strong for further development tonight or on Thursday. This system has a low chance of development in 48 hours and 7 days. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on both Milton and Leslie, visit www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W, south of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 09N and between 28W and 41W. A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles, located along 60W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are occurring south of 12N and between 55W and 64W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 07N30W and to 05N38W. The ITCZ extends from 05N38W to 07N49W and to 09N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N and between 44W and 51W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for more details on Major Hurricane Milton located in the eastern Gulf. Outside of the influence of Hurricane Milton, fresh to strong northerly winds are occurring between 88W and 93W and in the Bay of Campeche. Seas in these waters are 9-13 ft. In the remainder of the western Gulf, moderate or weaker winds and 5-9 ft seas are prevalent. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Milton is near 25.8N 84.3W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving northeast at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 931 mb. Milton will move to 27.0N 83.0W this evening, inland to 28.0N 81.1W Thu morning, 28.7N 78.3W Thu evening, weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 29.1N 75.1W Fri morning, 29.3N 72.0W Fri evening, and 29.9N 68.9W Sat morning. Milton will change little in intensity as it moves to the 31.4N 62.2W early Sun. Conditions should improve across the basin Fri night into Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent southerly winds feeding toward Hurricane Milton are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean, especially north of 20N and west of 80W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong W-SW winds over much of the NW Caribbean. Moderate to rough seas are occurring in these waters. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident in the SW Caribbean associated with the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Elsewhere, light, isolated showers are seen on satellite imagery in the trade wind flow. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found in the eastern Caribbean, while moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, Major Major Hurricane Milton is near 25.8N 84.3W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving northeast at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 931 mb. Milton will move to 27.0N 83.0W this evening, inland to 28.0N 81.1W Thu morning, 28.7N 78.3W Thu evening, weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 29.1N 75.1W Fri morning, 29.3N 72.0W Fri evening, and 29.9N 68.9W Sat morning. Milton will change little in intensity as it moves to the 31.4N 62.2W early Sun. Expect strong winds over the NW Caribbean to diminish by tonight, with rough seas persisting through Fri. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northerly winds may funnel from the Yucatan Channel southward to offshore eastern Honduras and Nicaragua as Milton drags a front or trough into the western Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section, for details about Major Hurricane Milton in the eastern Gulf, Hurricane Leslie in the central Atlantic and AL93 in the western Atlantic. A weak stationary front extends from 31N40W to 28N48W and a few showers are noted near this boundary. Moderate to locally fresh W winds are found east of the front to 30W and north of 30N. Seas of 7-10 ft are occurring north of 29N and between 28W and 44W.The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge centered near 26N35W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in moderate to locally strong NE-E winds north of the monsoon trough to 25N and east of 40W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, Major Major Hurricane Milton is near 25.8N 84.3W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving northeast at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 931 mb. Milton will move to 27.0N 83.0W this evening, inland to 28.0N 81.1W Thu morning, 28.7N 78.3W Thu evening, weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 29.1N 75.1W Fri morning, 29.3N 72.0W Fri evening, and 29.9N 68.9W Sat morning. Milton will change little in intensity as it moves to the 31.4N 62.2W early Sun. Meanwhile, 1000 b low pressure near 30N70W is producing gale force winds SE of the low center. The low will shift NE with gales continuing in the SE quadrant until the low moves N of the area Thu. Although environmental conditions are becoming less favorable for development, a short-lived tropical or subtropical storm could still form today or this evening while the low moves northeastward to east-northeastward at around 15 mph. This system has a medium chance of development in 48 hours and 7 days. Farther E, swells associated with Hurricane Leslie, forecast to remain E of the area, may impact the waters E of 60W today through Thu night. $$ Delgado