000 AXNT20 KNHC 092356 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Oct 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Milton is centered near 27.1N 83.0W at 09/2300 UTC or about 30 nm WSW of Sarasota Florida, moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous strong convection is observed from 25N to 30N E of 85W, including inland Florida. Peak seas near the center are 34 ft. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn toward the east on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will make landfall near or just south of the Tampa Bay region this evening, move across the central part of the Florida peninsula overnight, and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday. Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton could still be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central Florida this evening, and it will remain a hurricane while it moves across central Florida through Thursday. Milton is forecast to weaken over the western Atlantic and become extratropical by Thursday night. Hurricane Leslie is centered near 22.2N 49.0W at 09/2100 UTC or 830 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed 19N to 25N between 44W and 51W. Peak seas near the center are 28 ft. A turn toward the north and north- northeast is forecast during the next couple of days. Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight, followed by weakening through early next week. Western Atlantic Gale Warning (AL93): A 1000 mb low pressure system located 30N68W is producing gale force winds from 28N to 31N between 66W and 68W. Strong to near gale-force cyclonic winds are noted north of 25N and between 60W and 68W. Seas of 8-14 ft are occurring north of 25N and between 63W and 68W. The low will shift NE with gales continuing in the SE quadrant of the low until the low moves N of the area Thu. Environmental conditions are becoming less favorable for tropical or subtropical development today while the low moves northeastward to east-northeastward. Upper-level winds are expected to become too strong for further development tonight or on Thursday. This system has a low chance of development in 48 hours and 7 days. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on both Milton and Leslie, visit www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 02N to 14N with axis near 37W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 09N and between 34W and 43W. A tropical wave is just E of the Windward Islands, located along 61W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are occurring from 10N to 11N between 56W and 62W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 07N28W and to 06N40W. The ITCZ extends from 06N41W to 08N50W and to 09N59W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 25W and 34W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for more details on Major Hurricane Milton located in the eastern Gulf. Outside of the influence of Hurricane Milton, moderate to fresh northerly winds are occurring W of 90W, including the Bay of Campeche. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. For the forecast, Milton will move inland to 28.0N 81.8W Thu morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 28.9N 79.1W Thu afternoon, become extratropical and move to 29.2N 76.0W Fri morning, 29.3N 73.2W Fri afternoon, 29.4N 70.4W Sat morning, and 29.9N 67.7W Sat afternoon. Milton will weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 31.2N 61.4W Sun afternoon. Conditions should improve across the basin Fri night into Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Major Hurricane Milton is near 27.1N 83.0W at 7 PM EDT, and is moving northeast at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Fresh to strong W-SW winds associated with Milton are over the Yucatan Channel and W Cuba adjacent waters. Rough seas in the 8 to 14 ft range are occurring in these waters, higher un the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh ESE winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found in the eastern Caribbean, while moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, Milton will move inland to 28.0N 81.8W Thu morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 28.9N 79.1W Thu afternoon, become extratropical and move to 29.2N 76.0W Fri morning, 29.3N 73.2W Fri afternoon, 29.4N 70.4W Sat morning, and 29.9N 67.7W Sat afternoon. Milton will weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 31.2N 61.4W Sun afternoon. Expect strong winds over the NW Caribbean including the Yucatan Channel to diminish early Thu, with rough seas persisting through Fri. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northerly winds may funnel from the Yucatan Channel southward to offshore eastern Honduras and Nicaragua as Milton drags a front or trough into the western Caribbean. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh winds in the eastern Caribbean will spread to the central Caribbean Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section, for details about Major Hurricane Milton in the eastern Gulf, Hurricane Leslie in the central Atlantic and AL93 in the western Atlantic. Major Hurricane Milton is near 27.1N 83.0W at 7 PM EDT, and is moving northeast at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Meanwhile, 1000 mb low pressure near 30N68.5W is producing gale force winds SE of the low center. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge centered near 26N35W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in moderate to locally strong NE-E winds north of the monsoon trough to 25N and east of 40W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, Milton will move inland to 28.0N 81.8W Thu morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 28.9N 79.1W Thu afternoon, become extratropical and move to 29.2N 76.0W Fri morning, 29.3N 73.2W Fri afternoon, 29.4N 70.4W Sat morning, and 29.9N 67.7W Sat afternoon. Milton will weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 31.2N 61.4W Sun afternoon. The low with gales will shift NE with gales continuing in the SE quadrant until the low moves N of the area Thu. Farther E, swells associated with Hurricane Leslie, forecast to remain E of the area, may impact the waters E of 60W through Thu night. $$ Ramos