000 AXNT20 KNHC 100622 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Oct 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Milton is centered near 27.6N 82.0W at 10/0300 UTC or about 65 nm SW of Orlando Florida, and moving ENE at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Seas just off the west- central Florida coast are peaking at 24 to 27 ft. Heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms are occurring up to 100 mn in a north semicircle, and 30 nm in a south semicircle from the center. Milton is going to continue on a ENE motion across central Florida overnight, then emerge into the western Atlantic on Thursday, and begin extratropical transition. Hurricane Leslie is centered near 22.6N 49.3W at 10/0300 UTC or 820 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, and moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed from 21N to 23N between 48W and 50W. Peak seas near the center are 30 to 32 ft. A gradual turn toward the N and NNE with a decreasing forward speed is forecast during the next few days. Some additional strengthening is possible through Thursday morning, then followed by weakening trend afterward. Western Atlantic Gale Warning (AL93): A 1003 mb low pressure system located near 30N65W is producing strong to gale-force westerly winds with 11 to 14 ft seas from 28N to 30N between 61W and 65W. This low and associated gales will shift northeastward into the north-central Atlantic on Thursday. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on both Milton and Leslie, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W from 14N southward, and moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 08N between 37W and 40W. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 61W from the Windward Islands southward into northeastern Venezuela. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic along the Senegal coast near Dakar, then extends southwestward across 10N23W to 08N32W. An ITCZ continues westward from 08N32W to 08N50W, and then northwestward from 07N40W to 10N58W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is found near and south of the trough from 07N to 16N between the central Africa coast and 19W. Scattered moderate convection is noted farther west from 08N to 11N between 24W and 35W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen up to 80 nm along either side of the second ITCZ segment. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and strong thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near northern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for more details on Hurricane Milton near the Florida west coast. A surface trough curves southwestward from the southeastern Gulf to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Outside the direct influence of Hurricane Milton, fresh to near-gale NW to N winds and seas of 12 to 24 ft are present. Moderate to fresh NW to NE winds and seas at 10 to 13 ft are found at the central Atlantic. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds and 6 to 8 ft seas exist elsewhere in the Gulf. For the forecast, Milton will move across Florida overnight, and weaken to a tropical storm near 28.9N 79.1W Thu afternoon in the western Atlantic. Hilton is expected to become extratropical and move to 29.2N 76.0W Fri morning, 29.3N 73.2W Fri afternoon, 29.4N 70.4W Sat morning, and 29.9N 67.7W Sat afternoon. Conditions should improve across the basin Fri night into Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent southerly winds are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over eastern Cuba and near the Windward Passage. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Caribbean Sun. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present at the southeastern basin. Moderate to fresh NE to W winds and 6 to 10 ft seas are noted at the northwestern basin, including the Honduras. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.. For the forecast, Expect strong winds over the northwestern basin, including the Yucatan Channel to diminish early Thu, with rough seas persisting through Fri. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northerly winds may funnel from the Yucatan Channel southward to offshore eastern Honduras and Nicaragua as Milton drags a front or trough into the western basin. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh winds in the eastern basin will spread to the central basin Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about Hurricanes Milton and Leslie, and Gales. Also refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for convection in the Atlantic basin. Other than the gales mentioned in the Special Features section, moderate to fresh S to W to NW winds and 8 to 11 ft seas dominate north of 25N between 55W and 68W. Other than direct impact from Hurricane Milton over central Florida, fresh to near-gale ESE to S winds with 7 to 10 ft seas exist from the northwest Bahamas northward between 75W and the Florida/Georgia coast. For the forecast W of 55W, Milton will move to 28.7N 80.0W Thu morning in the Atlantic, 29.2N 76.8W Thu evening, then weaken to an extratropical cyclone near 29.3N 73.8W Fri morning. It should move to 29.0N 71.0W Fri evening, 29.0N 68.0W Sat morning, and 29.5N 65.0W Sat evening, then to 31.6N 59.0W late Sun. Meanwhile, the 1003 mb low will shift northwest of the area by Thu evening while gales diminish. Farther east, swells associated with Hurricane Leslie, forecast to remain east of the area, will impact the waters east of 60W through Thu night, mixing with swells generated by the gale low. Conditions should improve across the entire basin by early next week. $$ Chan