000 AXNT20 KNHC 100913 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Oct 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Milton is centered near 28.5N 80.5W at 10/0900 UTC or 10 nm NE of Cape Canaveral Florida, moving NE at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are currently estimated to be around 33 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 480 nm in the NE and E quadrants of Milton in the Atlantic waters. Milton is moving toward the northeast and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the east tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move away from Florida and to the north of the Bahamas today. Gradual weakening is expected, but Milton is forecast to become a powerful extratropical low tonight. Heavy rainfall across the central to northern Florida Peninsula through this morning continues to bring the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect portions of the southeast U.S. and the Bahamas during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Leslie is centered near 22.9N 49.8W at 10/0900 UTC or 1480 nm WSW of the Azores, moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are currently estimated to be around 30 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the center of Leslie. A turn to the north and north-northeast with an increase in forward motion is forecast on Friday, followed by a turn to the northeast and east- northeast over the weekend. Leslie is forecast to weaken during the next few days. Western Atlantic Gale Warning (AL93): A 1003 mb low pressure system located near 30.N64.5W is producing strong to gale-force westerly winds with 10 to 16ft seas from 28N to 31N between 61W and 66W. This low and associated gales will shift northeastward into the north-central Atlantic this evening. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on both Milton and Leslie, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 15N southward, and moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 09N between 37W and 48W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 62.5W from the Windward Islands southward into northeastern Venezuela. It is moving westward at around 10 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic along the coast of Africa near Dakar, Senegal at 14.5N17W to 09N31W. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N31W to 07N39W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 07N39W to 09N57W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted near the coast of Africa from 05N to 16N between the coast of Africa and 20W, likely associated with the next tropical wave. Similar convection is noted from 06N to 08.5N between 21W and 26W, and from 08N to 12N between 27W and 35W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and strong thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near northern Colombia and northern Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for more details on Hurricane Milton near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Tropical storm force winds are still in the Gulf coastal waters of Florida. Outside the direct influence of Hurricane Milton, fresh to near- gale NW to N winds are present east of 90W, with gentle to moderate winds west of 90W. Very large and dangerous remnant swells cover the majority of the basin, with seas of 12 ft or greater east of 91.5W, and 7 to 11 ft west of 91.5W. For the forecast, Milton will move into the Atlantic to 29.3N 78.0W this afternoon, weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 29.6N 74.2W Fri morning, 29.6N 70.3W Fri afternoon, 29.7N 67.0W Sat morning, 29.9N 63.5W Sat afternoon, and weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 30.6N 60.1W Sun morning. Milton will dissipate early Mon. Conditions should improve across the basin Fri night into Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Hurricane Milton is located north of the area over east-Central Florida with a trailing trough moving into the NW Caribbean. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Caribbean Sun. Moderate to fresh winds are in the NW Caribbean around the far outer influence of Milton, while remnant NW to N swells of 8 to 12 ft continue to spread through the Yucatan Channel all the way to the coast of eastern Honduras with higher values in the channel. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are in the Caribbean east of 70W, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Mainly gentle winds and seas of 3 ft or less prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will funnel from the Yucatan Channel southward to offshore eastern Honduras and Nicaragua as Milton drags the trough across the western Caribbean while continuing away from the area. Meanwhile, large swells of 8 to 12 ft from the Yucatan Channel continue to impact the waters north of 16N and west of 82W, higher in the channel. These seas will very slowly subside through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh winds in the eastern Caribbean will spread to the central Caribbean Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about Hurricanes Milton and Leslie, and a Gale force low center near 30.5N64.5W. Also refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for convection in the Atlantic basin. Other than those features mentioned in the Special Features section, mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the open waters, except moderate to fresh from 13N to 23N between the coast of Africa and 23W. Seas are 5 to 9 ft away from the special features in mixed swells, except 7 to 10 ft in the moderate to fresh winds near Africa. For the forecast W of 55W, Milton will move into the Atlantic to 29.3N 78.0W this afternoon, weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 29.6N 74.2W Fri morning, 29.6N 70.3W Fri afternoon, 29.7N 67.0W Sat morning, 29.9N 63.5W Sat afternoon, and weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 30.6N 60.1W Sun morning. Milton will dissipate early Mon. Meanwhile, 1003 mb low pressure near 30.5N64.5W is producing gale force winds SE of the low center. The low will shift NE of the area this evening while gales diminish across the area. Farther E, swells associated with Hurricane Leslie, forecast to remain E of the area, will impact the waters E of 60W through tonight, mixing with swells generated by the gale low. Conditions should improve across the entire basin by early next week. $$ Lewitsky