000 AXNT20 KNHC 101739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Oct 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Milton has become a powerful Post-Tropical Cyclone centered near 29.3N 77.5W at 10/1800 UTC, or about 180 nm ENE of Cape Canaveral Florida, moving NE at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has diminished to 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are currently estimated to be around 29 ft. Latest satellite imagery suggests that Milton is taking on extratropical characteristics. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is seen pulling off to the ENE away from Milton. Thus activity is along and to the N of a warm front that is present to the N and NE of Milton. The convection is primarily N of 28N between 71W and 75W and also N of 30N between 75W and 80W. Milton is expected to turn to the east later today, with that motion forecast to continue over the western Atlantic for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will continue to move away from the east coast of Florida and pass north of the northwestern Bahamas this afternoon. Gradual weakening is expected during the next several days. Additional rainfall amounts around an inch are possible along the northeastern coast of Florida through today. In the wake of heavy rainfall from Milton, the risk of considerable urban flooding will linger through this morning across east central Florida. Moderate to major river flooding is ongoing and forecast throughout central Florida. Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect portions of the southeast U.S. and the Bahamas during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Leslie is centered near 23.9N 50.4W at 10/1500 UTC, or about 1500 nm WSW of the Azores, moving WNW at 6kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has risen to 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 10 kt. Peak seas are currently estimated to be around 32 ft. Leslie is underneath strong northerly vertical shear. Latest satellite imagery is exhibiting the low-level center being just barely underneath the northern edge of the central dense overcast (CDO). Numerous moderate to strong convection within the is roughly within 90 nm of the center in the S semicircle. Leslie is forecast to turn toward the north is expected today, followed by a turn to the northeast on Fri, with an east-northeastward turn expected over the weekend. Steady to rapid weakening is forecast over the next couple of days. Western Atlantic Gale Warning (AL93): A 1003 mb low pressure system located near 30N62W is producing strong to gale-force southwest to west winds, with 14 to 18 ft seas from 28N to 31N between 61W and 66W. The low is forecast to dissipate this afternoon, and the gale-force winds are forecast to become southerly at fresh to strong speeds, with seas subsiding some. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on both Milton and Leslie, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa this morning. The axis of this wave is analyzed along 18W from 09N to 20N. Low pressure of 1008 mb is analyzed along the wave axis at 14N. Satellite imagery clearly reveals the cyclonic circulation associated with this low. It covers the area from 11N to 16N between the coast of Africa and 22W. This system is estimated to be moving westward to west-northwest at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 09N to 16N between 17W and 23W. Environmental conditions appear marginal for limited development of this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic and the Cabo Verde Islands on Fri. By Sat, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable, and further development is unlikely after that time. Regardless of development, localized areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands late Thu through Fri A central Atlantic tropical wave has is axis along 41W from 05N to 16N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 to 90 nm within either side of the wave from 06N to 09N. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 63W south of 17N into eastern Venezuela. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. No deep convection is near this wave. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago. Otherwise, only isolated small showers moving westward are near the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from along the coast of Africa near Dakar, Senegal at 14.5N17W southwestward to the 1008 mb low that is along the recently emerged tropical wave, and continues to 09N33W. The ITCZ continues westward from 09N33W to 07N39W. It resumes W of a tropical wave near 07N41W to 09N57W. Scattered moderate convection is S of the trough from 06N to 09N between 23W and 28W and within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 34W and 45W. Similar convection is within 30 nm S of the ITCZ between 45W and 49W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is helping to enhance scattered moderate convection over the southwestern Caribbean from 09N to 15N between 75W and 77W and S of 12N between 80W and the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Hurricane Milton located about 120 nm E NE of Cape Canaveral, Florida. Strong winds are over the eastern Gulf waters along with seas very high seas of 16 to 25 ft in N to NE swell. Elsewhere, fresh to strong NW to N winds are E of 89W while light to gentle northerly winds are W of 89W to moderate winds west of 90W. Seas of 8 to 12 ft in E swell are between 89W and 94W, seas of 6 to 9 ft in E swell are W of 89W. A stationary front extends from along the southeastern coast of Georgia southwestward to 29N84W and to near 26N89W. No convection is occurring with this boundary. For the forecast, the strong winds over the eastern Gulf will diminish through Fri. Little change is expected elsewhere through Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Caribbean Sun. Hurricane Milton is E of central Florida. Related rough seas continue over the eastern Gulf and into the Yucatan Channel and surrounding waters. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are over the northwestern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are over the Caribbean east of 70W, along with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Mainly gentle winds and seas of 3 ft or less prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean For the forecast, the rough seas in and near the Yucatan Channel will diminish through Fri as Milton continues to move away from the area. Moderate to fresh winds will persist over the eastern Caribbean through early next week, with mostly gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for information about Hurricanes Milton and Leslie, and a Gale force low center located near 30N62W. Also refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for convection in the Atlantic basin. Other than those features mentioned in the Special Features section, mainly gentle to moderate winds remain across the remainder of the open waters, except moderate to fresh trades from about 05N to 16N between the tropical axis that is along 41W and 55W and fresh to strong winds in the far eastern Atlantic from 14N to 24N between the far eastern new tropical wave/low pressure and 35W as noted in a recent ASCAT satellite data pass over the part of the Atlantic. Seas are generally 6 to 9 ft away from the special features in mixed swells, except 7 to 10 ft within the area of fresh to strong winds over the far eastern Atlantic near Africa and the new wave/low pressure. For the forecast W of 55W, Hurricane Milton is forecast to become extratropical and move to 29.6N 75.3W this evening, weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 29.9N 70.1W Fri morning, 30.0N 64.9W Fri evening, 29.9N 60.9W Sat morning, 30.4N 57.6W Sat evening, then weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 31.4N 53.9W Sun morning. Milton will dissipate early Mon. Farther E, swells associated with Hurricane Leslie, forecast to remain E of the area, will impact the waters E of 60W through tonight, mixing with swells generated by the gale low. Conditions should improve across the entire basin by early next week. $$ Aguirre