000 AXNT20 KNHC 110001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Oct 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton is centered near 29.5N 76.3W at 10/2100 UTC or 190 nm NNE of Great Abaco Island, moving E at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas near its center are 32 ft. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of Milton associated more with the warm front that connects to the NE of the low. On the forecast track, the center of the post- tropical cyclone will pass to the south of Bermuda late Friday. Additional weakening is forecast during the next several days. Coastal flooding is expected to continue along portions of the southeastern U.S. coast through tonight. Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect portions of the southeast U.S. and the Bahamas during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 23.9N 50.9W at 10/2100 UTC or 1490 nm WSW of the Azores, moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas near the center are 30 ft. Scattered moderate convection is from 19N to 23N between 49W and 55W. On the forecast track, Leslie will turn towards the north tonight, and will follow a turn to the northeast on Friday, with an east-northeastward turn expected over the weekend. Rapid weakening is forecast to continue during the next day or so, and Leslie is forecast to lose tropical characteristics in a few days. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on both Milton and Leslie, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the E Atlantic, Invest AL94, is just E of the Cape Verde Islands associated with a 1007 mb low centered near 14N21W. The wave extends from 09N to 19N, and is moving west to west-northwest at 15 to 20 kt. The broad area of low pressure is generating scattered heavy showers and tstms from 07N to 15N between 16W and 25W. Environmental conditions appear marginal for limited development of this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic and the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday. By Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable, and further development is unlikely after that time. Regardless of development, localized areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight through Friday. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 03N to 13N with axis near 43W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 35W and 56W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from 16N16W southwestward to the 1007 mb low associated with Invest AL94 to 08N32W. The ITCZ continues westward from 08N32W to 07N39W. It resumes W of a tropical wave near 06N44W to 08N56W. For information on convection see the Tropical Waves Section. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong N to NW winds are over the eastern Gulf waters E of 89W along with seas rough seas of 8 to 11 ft in N to NE swell. West of 89W, a surface ridge building in the wake of now Post- Tropical Cyclone Milton supports gentle to moderate northerly winds and moderate to rough seas to 9 ft. For the forecast, strong winds and rough to very rough seas over the eastern Gulf will diminish through Fri tonight. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist Sat through the early part of next week. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the northern Gulf Tue night, followed by fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail of a cold front connected to now Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton extends across western Cuba into the NW Caribbean with moderate W to NW winds behind it. Seas W of the front are 5 to 9 ft, highest in the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are over the Caribbean east of 70W, along with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Mainly gentle winds and seas of 3 ft or less prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will persist over the eastern Caribbean through early next week, with mostly gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for information about Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton and Tropical Storm Leslie. Also refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for convection in the Atlantic basin. Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton is near 29.5N 76.3W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving east at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 983 mb. A 1003 mb low pressure system, Invest AL93, is located near 31N59W is producing fresh to strong southwest winds, with 8 to 14 ft seas N of 25N between 51W and 66W. Other than those features mentioned in the Special Features section, mainly gentle to moderate winds remain across the remainder of the open waters, except for fresh to strong winds over the far eastern Atlantic between the coast of W Africa and the wave E of Cape Verde. For the forecast W of 55W, Milton will become extratropical and move to 29.6N 72.8W Fri morning, 29.8N 67.4W Fri afternoon, 30.4N 62.3W Sat morning, 31.0N 58.5W Sat afternoon, 32.1N 54.6W Sun morning, then continue north of the area before dissipating by Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong SW winds and rough to very rough seas southeast of Bermuda will briefly diminish through tonight as the trough associated with it lifts northeast of the area. Winds will increase again Fri as the remnant low of Milton moves eastward. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the region early next week as high pressure builds over the area. $$ Ramos