000 AXNT20 KNHC 110625 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Oct 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Storm Warning: A deep frontal low pressure system, formerly Milton is centered near 29.5N 73.7W at 11/0300 UTC or 495 nm WSW of Bermuda, and moving E at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Strong gale to storm force winds along with 20 to 25 ft seas are occurring near the center north of 27N between 73W and 76W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also seen in this area. This system is expected to move generally eastward while gradually weaken over the next couple of days, passing south of Bermuda on Friday night. Dangerous surf and rip currents caused by easterly swell from this system will continue to impact the southeastern US coast and Bahamas through Saturday. Leslie in the central Atlantic: Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 24.4N 51.2W at 11/0300 UTC or 1475 nm WSW of the Azores, and moving NNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas near the center are 22 to 24 ft. Scattered moderate convection is near and south of the center from 20N to 24N between 51W and 54W. On the forecast track, Leslie will turn towards the north early Friday, and then the northeast with a increase in forward speed this weekend. A weakening trend is going to continue and Leslie could become a post-tropical low this weekend Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on Leslie, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W from 18N southward through a 1006 mb low near 14N22W. it is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 12N to 15N between 20W and 22W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 44W from 13N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 06N to 09N between 43W and 45W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Mauritania the Senegal, then curves southwestward across 12N25W to 09N32. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N32W to 08N43W, then resume from 07N45W to near the Suriname coast at 06N56W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the trough from 08N to 10N between 18W and 34W. Other than the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is found up to 120 nm north, and 80 nm south of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating scattered showers and strong thunderstorms in the Caribbean waters north of Venezuela, and offshore of Nicaragua. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Dry fresh to locally strong N to NE winds with 4 to 7 ft seas are dominating the northeastern Gulf. Mostly moderate N to NE winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft in residual NE swell exist at the central and southeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, strong northerly winds over the eastern Gulf and moderate to large N to NE swell over most of the basin will gradually diminish through midday Fri. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist Sat through the early part of next week. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the northern Gulf Tue night, followed by fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent southerly winds to the south of a cold front near central Cuba are producing isolated thunderstorms near Jamaica and the Windward Passage. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted at the eastern basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft exist at the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate NW to NE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail for elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin. For the forecast, northerly swell of 5 to 7 ft will gradually subside over the Yucatan Channel and far western Caribbean waters overnight. Moderate to fresh winds will persist over the eastern Caribbean through early next week, with mostly gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about Storm force winds and Tropical Storm Leslie. A cold front curves southwestward from the aforementioned deep low in the Special Features section across the central Bahamas to central Cuba. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring east of this feature north of 20N between 65W and 74W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for convection in the Atlantic basin. Besides the strong gale to storm force winds, fresh to near-gale SW to NW winds with 8 to 16 ft seas dominate north of 24N and west of 67W. A cold front runs southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N57W to 28N62W. Fresh to strong SE to NW winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are evident north of 27N between 52W and 58W. For the forecast W of 55W, besides storm to gale-force winds mentioned in the Speical Feature section, fresh to strong SW winds and rough to very rough seas persist southeast of Bermuda related to a trough along 57W in the area. These winds and seas will lift northeast of the area, but will increase again Fri as the remnant low of Milton moves eastward into that area. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the region early next week as high pressure builds over the area$$ Chan