000 AXNT20 KNHC 111044 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Oct 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Storm Warning: A deep frontal low pressure system, formerly Milton, is centered near 29.5N 72.5W at 0600 UTC, and moving E at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Strong gale to storm force winds along with 20 to 28 ft seas are occurring near the center north of 26.5N between 70W and 76W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also seen in this area. This system is expected to move generally eastward while gradually weaken over the next couple of days, passing south of Bermuda on Friday night. This large system is producing an extensive area of high seas across the western Atlantic, with seas 12 ft and greater extending from 25N to beyond 31N and between 69W and 81W. Large NE to E swell is battering the eastern seaboard of the U.S. and the Bahamas this morning, from the Carolinas to south Florida. This swell will produce large and powerful surf and life-threatening rip currents along the coasts of the southeastern US coast and Bahamas through Saturday. Leslie in the central Atlantic: Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 25.5N 50.8W at 0900 UTC, moving N at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas near the center are 20 to 22 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection extends from the center southward to 21.5N between 50.5W and 54.5W. On the forecast track, Leslie will turn northeast with a increase in forward speed tonight through this weekend. A weakening trend is going to continue and Leslie is expected to become a post-tropical low this weekend. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on Leslie, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from 18N southward through a 1006 mb low near 14N23W, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 12N to 15N between 19W and 23.5W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 13N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is along the ITCZ 06N to 09.5N between 41W and 47W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Mauritania the Senegal, then curves southwestward through the low pressure near 14N23W to 08.5N32. An ITCZ continues westward from 08.5N32W to 08N43W, then resume from 07.5N46W to near the Suriname coast at 07N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the African coast from 04.5N to 10N E of 15W. Other than the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found from 07N to 10N between 20W and 32W, and from 06N to 10.5N between 34W and 55W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating scattered strong thunderstorms in the Caribbean waters south of 13.5N and between 73W and 77W, and offshore of Honduras and Nicaragua. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Dry fresh to locally strong N to NE winds, with 4 to 7 ft seas are dominating the northeastern Gulf. Mostly moderate N to NE winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft in residual NE swell persist across the central and southeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, strong northerly winds over the far eastern Gulf and moderate to large N to NE swell over most of the basin will gradually diminish today. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist Sat through the early part of next week. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the northern Gulf Tue night, followed by fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent southwesterly winds to the south of a cold front across central Cuba are producing isolated thunderstorms near Jamaica and the Windward Passage. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted at the eastern basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft exist at the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin. Northerly swell continues to move through the Yucatan Channel and across the far western basin, producing seas of 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast, moderate northerly swell will gradually subside over the Yucatan Channel and far western Caribbean waters today. Moderate to fresh winds will persist over the eastern Caribbean through early next week, with mostly gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about Storm force winds and Tropical Storm Leslie. A cold front curves southwestward from the aforementioned deep low in the Special Features section near 29.5N 72.5W, across the central Bahamas to central Cuba. Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are occurring east of this feature north of 20N between 65W and 74W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for convection in the Atlantic basin. Besides the strong gale to storm force winds, fresh to near-gale cyclonic winds with 8 to 18 ft seas dominate north of 24N and west of 67W. A second cold front runs southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N54W to 28N61W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas at 8 to 13 ft are evident north of 27N between 49W and 56W. High pressure dominates the area E of 48W to NW Africa, where gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail with seas of 6 to 8 ft in N swell. For the forecast W of 55W, the remnant low of Milton will move quickly E-NE through Sat, while gradually weakening, and exit the to the NE of 55W. Winds and seas will gradually diminish Sat through Sat night in its wake. Meanwhile, fresh to strong SW winds and rough to very rough seas persist southeast of Bermuda related to a trough along 57W in the area. These winds and seas will lift northeast of the area, but will increase again Sat as the remnant low of Milton moves eastward into that area. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the region early next week as high pressure builds over the area. $$ Stripling