000 AXNT20 KNHC 111726 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Oct 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... WEST ATLANTIC STORM WARNING: At 1200 UTC, 997 mb low pressure (formerly Post- Tropical Cyclone Milton) was centered near 29N70W with an estimated motion to the E at 20 kt. Cyclonic storm force winds are analyzed from 26N to 31N between 67W and 73W. Peak seas are currently 24 ft. Large swell from this system extends across the western Atlantic, with seas greater than 12 ft north of 25N and west of 60W. West of the low pressure center, including along the coasts of Florida and Atlantic exposures of the Bahamas, swell direction is primarily NE with a period of 10-12 seconds. Life- threatening rip currents and powerful surf are likely along the southeastern US coast and Bahamas over the next couple of days. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service Office or local meteorological service for more information on coastal and near- shore hazards. The system is expected to continue moving generally eastward while slowly weakening over the next couple of days, passing south of Bermuda on Friday night. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information on this WEST ATLANTIC STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM LESLIE: Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 26.4N 50.5W at 11/1500 UTC or 1380 nm WSW of the Azores, moving NNE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are to 20 ft. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm in the southern semicircle of Leslie. On the forecast track, a turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast over the weekend. Gradual weakening is expected to continue today, and Leslie is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in a day or two. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Leslie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING FOR DISTURBANCE NEAR THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS (AL94): Satellite-derived wind data from this morning indicates that gale force winds are occurring over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands in association with an area of low pressure centered near the southwestern portion of the archipelago. However, the satellite data showed that the circulation is elongated, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Some additional development is possible, and a short-lived tropical storm could form while the system moves westward or west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt across the Cabo Verde Islands and eastern tropical Atlantic today. On Saturday, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive, and further development appears unlikely after that time. Regardless of development, winds to gale force and areas of heavy rain are likely to continue over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through tonight. This disturbance has a MEDIUM chance of developing into a tropical cyclone through the next 48 hours. Meteo-France has issued a GALE WARNING for the CAPE VERDE Offshore Zone, effective through 11/2100 UTC. The gale warning for the CAP TIMIRIS Offshore Zone expired at 11/1500 UTC. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more information. Please also read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave, co-located with AL94, is along 25W from 08N to 10N and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 13N to 18N between 21W and 26W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 47W from 12N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Mauritania and Senegal, then curves southwestward through AL96 near the Cabo Verde Islands and continues to 09N32W. The ITCZ extends from 09N32W to 09N45W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NE winds prevail across most of the Gulf of Mexico, except in the Bay of Campeche where N to NW winds are pulsing to fresh speeds near the coast of Veracruz. Seas are 3-5 ft across the Gulf, with locally higher values to 6 ft analyzed in the SE Gulf. For the forecast, fresh northerly winds over the far eastern Gulf and moderate N to NE swell over most of the basin will gradually diminish tonight. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist Sat through the early part of next week. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the northern Gulf Tue night, followed by fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak surface trough extends across the NW Caribbean from central Cuba to near Belize. Scattered moderate convection is south of 15N west of 78W, including the coasts of far eastern Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Satellite derived wind data that arrived this morning depicts gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean. Seas are 3-6 ft, and may be locally higher in Atlantic Passages due to arriving N swell. For the forecast, moderate northerly swell will gradually subside over the Yucatan Channel and far western Caribbean waters today. Moderate to fresh winds will persist over the eastern Caribbean through early next week, with mostly gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a WEST ATLANTIC STORM WARNING, TROPICAL STORM LESLIE, and an EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING for AL94. A cold front extends southwestward from the STORM FORCE LOW PRESSURE near 29N68W across the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos to eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong NW winds follow the front across the western Atlantic north of the Bahamas, with speeds moderate or weaker south of the Bahamas. A warm front extends northeastward from the low pressure. Another cold front extends from 31N53W to 27N57W. Seas greater than 8 ft encompass the entire basin north of 22N and east of 44W, in mixed swell from the STORM FORCE LOW and TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. 1016 mb high pressure is centered 240 nm ENE of the Leeward Islands. 1020 mb high pressure is centered near 28N38W. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the tropical Atlantic, except near the SPECIAL FEATURES described above. Seas are 4-7 ft in remaining waters. For the forecast W of 55W, the storm force low pressure will weaken to gale force later today, and its attendant area of gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will shift east of 70W north of 23N tonight, with lingering swell farther west toward the Bahamas. Winds and seas diminish further through early Sun as the low shifts east of the area. The swell and remaining seas near the low will subside through late Sun, leaving gentle breezes and mostly 4 to 6 ft swell across the region going into Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida Tue night, followed by fresh N winds. $$ Mahoney