000 AXNT20 KNHC 112345 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Oct 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 27.6N 49.4W at 11/2100 UTC or 1290 nm WSW of the Azores, moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently estimated to be at 20 ft. Latest satellite imagery shows that the cyclone is a sheared system as its center remains exposed. The imagery reveals that the remaining convection of scattered moderate to isolated strong intensity is within 70 nm south- southwest of the center. Leslie is expected to acquire a northeastward to east-northeastward motion along with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. Gradual weakening is forecast the next few days with Leslie forecast to become a post- tropical cyclone in a day or so. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Leslie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Tropical Storm Leslie. Western Atlantic Gale Warning: At 1800 UTC, 1000 mb low pressure (formerly Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton) is centered near 28N67W with an estimated eastward motion of 15 to 20 kt. The low is producing gale force winds roughly within 180 nm of the low, and a broad area fresh to near gale-force winds that cover the waters from 24N to 31N between 62W and 75W. Peak seas are currently estimated to be in the range of 15-20 ft due to west swell. Large swell from this system is over the western Atlantic, with seas greater than 12 ft present north of 25N between 65W and 80W. West of the low pressure center, including along the coasts of Florida and Atlantic exposures of the Bahamas, swell direction is primarily NE with a period of 10-12 seconds. Life- threatening rip currents and powerful surf are likely along the southeastern United States coast and Bahamas over the next couple of days. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service Office or local meteorological service for more information on coastal and near-shore hazards. The system is expected to continue moving generally eastward while slowly weakening over the next couple of days, passing south of Bermuda on Fri night. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information on this western Atlantic Gale Warning. East Atlantic Disturbance near the Cabo Verde Islands (AL94): Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection remains disorganized in association with an area of low pressure just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some development is possible tonight, and a short-lived tropical storm could form while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph away from the Cabo Verde Islands. On Saturday, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive, and further development appears unlikely after that time. Regardless of development, gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are likely to continue over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more information. Please also read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave that passes through AL94 is along 26W from 07N to 20N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 08N to 11N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along is near 49W from 05N to 14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate is within 240 nm west of the wave from 08N to 10N, and within 120 nm east of the wave from 04N to 12N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Mauritania and Senegal, then curves southwestward through AL94 near the Cabo Verde Islands and continues southwestward to 09N31W. The ITCZ extends from 09N31W to 09N46W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 31W and 34W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 31W and 35W. Similar activity is north of the ITCZ within 60 nm of 10N38W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered over the southeastern United States is maintaining gentle to moderate northeast winds are over the basin, except west of 93W where winds are at gentle speeds and northeast to east in direction. Seas are in the range of 3-5 ft across the Gulf, with slightly higher seas to 6 ft over the southeastern part of the Gulf. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist Sat through the early part of next week. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the northern Gulf Tue night, followed by fresh north to northeast winds and building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak surface trough over the northwestern Caribbean extends from near the Cayman Islands southwestward to the Gulf of Honduras while another weak trough is analyzed from just north of Jamaica to Jamaica and south from there to 14N79W. Isolated showers may be near the first trough. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are within 60 nm west of the second trough from 16N to 19N. To the south of these trough, an area of scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection extends from along the coast of Costa Rica, northward to 17N and west of 81W to just inland the Central America coast. An elongated upper trough over this general area could be aiding this convective activity. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere west of 69W. Latest ASCAT satellite data passes indicate gentle to moderate trades across the basin. A concentrated area of fresh trades is south of 15N between 64W and 72W, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are in the range of 3-6 ft, but may be locally higher in Atlantic Passages due to arriving north swell generated from Tropical Storm Leslie and from previous central Atlantic low pressure systems. For the forecast, moderate northerly swell will gradually subside over the Yucatan Channel and far western Caribbean waters this evening and early tonight. Moderate to fresh winds will persist over the eastern Caribbean through early next week, with mostly gentle winds and slight seas elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a western Atlantic Gale Warning, Tropical Storm Leslie and on a disturbance (AL94) in the far eastern Atlantic. A cold front extends southwestward from the gale force low pressure system centered near 28N67W to just east of the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos to the extreme northeast tip of Cuba. Fresh to strong northwest winds follow the front across the western Atlantic north of the Bahamas, with speeds moderate or weaker south of the Bahamas. An occluded frontal structure extends northeastward from the low to 30N65W, where it become a warm front that extends northeast of the area to low pressure of 1006 mb at 32N60W. A stationary front then extends eastward from the low to a cold front from 33N54W to another low well north of the area. A large flare-up of numerous strong convection moving quickly eastward is evident from 29N to 32N and between 57W and 62W. Seas greater than 8 ft are over practically the entire basin north of 22N and west of 44W from mixed swell from the earlier storm-force and current gale-force winds and also from Tropical Storm Leslie. A weak 1013 mb high center is situated about 300 east-northeast of the Leeward Islands, and a weak 1018 mb high center is near 28N36W. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the tropical Atlantic, except near the Special Features systems described above. Seas are 5-7 ft in remaining waters, except for lower seas of 3-4 ft southwest of the Bahamas. An area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is noted from 21N to 24N between 53W and 60W. For the forecast W of 55W, the remnant low pressure (current gale-force low) of Milton near 28N67W moving eastward at 15 to 20 kt is supporting a broad area of strong to gale force winds and rough to very rough seas within 300 nm of the center. Associated large swell is spreading across the region north of 23N and east of the Bahamas. The weakening low pressure and its attendant area of gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will shift east of 70W north of 23N tonight, with swell persisting farther west toward the Bahamas. Winds diminish further through early Sun as the low shifts east of the area. The associated swell will subside through late Sun, leaving gentle breezes and mostly 4 to 6 ft swell across the region going into Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida Wed, followed by fresh north winds and building seas. $$ Aguirre