000 AXNT20 KNHC 120555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Oct 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0555 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 29.3N 47.9W at 12/0300 UTC or 1160 nm WSW of the Azores, moving NE at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently estimated to be at 18 ft. Numerous strong convection is observed within 100 nm in the southern semicircle. Little change in strength is expected through Saturday. After that, Leslie is likely to weaken and become extratropical Saturday night or Sunday. A northeastward to east- northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Leslie is expected to pass south of the Azores late Sunday or Sunday night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Leslie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Tropical Storm Leslie. Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1001 mb low pressure system (formerly Tropical Cyclone Milton) is centered near 30N62W, moving eastward at 20-25 kt. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depicted strong to gale-force winds north of 24N and between 57W and 73W. The strongest winds are noted within 90 nm from the low. Peak seas are currently estimated to be in the range of 12-18 ft due to west swell. Large swell from this system is over the western Atlantic, with seas greater than 12 ft present north of 25N between 59W and 75W. Seas greater 8 ft or greater are present north of 21N and west of 55W. West of the low pressure center, including along the coasts of Florida and Atlantic exposures of the Bahamas, swell direction is primarily NE with a period of 10-12 seconds. Life- threatening rip currents and powerful surf are likely along the southeastern United States coast and Bahamas over the next couple of days. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service Office or local meteorological service for more information on coastal and near- shore hazards. The system is expected to continue moving generally eastward while slowly weakening over the next couple of days, passing south of Bermuda on Fri night. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information on this western Atlantic Gale Warning. East Atlantic Disturbance near the Cabo Verde Islands (AL94): A 1006 mb low pressure system is located near 16N27W. A tropical wave is along 27W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Numerous strong convection is evident within 120 nm of the low in the eastern semicircle and scattered moderate convection is found within 200 nm of the low. Fresh to strong easterly winds and peak seas of 11 ft are occurring north of the low. If the circulation of the system becomes better defined and the showers and thunderstorms persist, the low could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm later this morning while it moves west- northwestward. Strong upper-level winds and dry air should end the chances of development by tonight or Sunday. Heavy rains and gusty winds are occurring over the western Cabo Verde Islands, and those conditions are expected to continue for a few more hours. The formation chance through 7 days is medium. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more information. Please also read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W, south of 14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are seen near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues westward to a 1006 mb low pres (AL94) near 16N27W and then to 08N38W. A few showers are noted near the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge over the SE United States supports fresh to locally strong easterly winds in the eastern Gulf as confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Shallow, scattered showers are occurring in the eastern Gulf and Bay of Campeche, while generally dry conditions are found in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, fresh northerly winds over the far eastern Gulf and moderate N to NE swell over most of the basin will gradually diminish tonight. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist Sat through the early part of next week. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to move into the northern Gulf Tue night, followed by fresh N to NE winds and building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... The interaction between a surface trough along 80W, the eastern Pacific monsoon trough and abundant tropical moisture sustain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of the trough axis and south of 17N. A few showers are also seen in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, drier conditions are prevalent. The weak pressure gradient across the basin sustains moderate to fresh easterly trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are present in the remainder of the Caribbean. However, a recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to near gale-force northerly winds are occurring in associated with the strong storms in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate northerly swell will gradually subside over the Yucatan Channel and far western Caribbean waters tonight. Moderate to fresh winds will persist over the eastern Caribbean through early next week, with mostly gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a western Atlantic Gale Warning, Tropical Storm Leslie in the north-central Atlantic and on a disturbance (AL94) in the far eastern Atlantic. Outside of the influence of all the systems in the Special Features section, high pressure dominates the waters west of 75W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the remnants of Milton support moderate to fresh NE-E north of 24N and west of 73W. Moderate to rough seas are found in these waters. Elsewhere, a broad subtropical ridge dominates, resulting in moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast W of 55W, the remnant low pressure of Milton is centered near 27N64.5W and is moving eastward at 15 to 20 kt. The low is supporting a broad area of strong to gale force winds and rough to very rough seas within 300 nm of the center. Associated large swell is spreading across the region north of 23N and east of the Bahamas. The gale conditions will dissipate by early Sat as the weakening low pressure moves eastward. The swell generated by the low will persist west of it toward the Bahamas through Sat night. Winds will diminish further through Sun. Gentle breezes and mostly 4 to 6 ft swell will prevail across the region into Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by the middle of next week, followed by fresh N winds and building seas. $$ Delgado