000 AXNT20 KNHC 121031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Oct 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 31.3N 45.9W at 12/0900 UTC or 1010 nm WSW of the Azores, moving NE at 21 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently estimated to be at 21 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is from 28N to 33N between 44W and 48W. A northeastward to eastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Leslie is expected to pass near or over the Azores late Sunday or Monday morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Leslie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Tropical Storm Leslie. Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1003 mb low pressure system (formerly Tropical Cyclone Milton) is centered near 29N60.5W, moving eastward at 15-20 kt. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depicted strong to gale-force winds north of 24N and between 57W and 73W. The strongest winds are noted within 90 nm from the low. Peak seas are currently estimated to be in the range of 12-18 ft due to west swell. Large swell from this system is over the western Atlantic, with seas greater than 12 ft present north of 25N between 58W and 73W. Seas greater 8 ft or greater are present north of 21N and west of 55W. West of the low pressure center, including along the coasts of Florida and Atlantic exposures of the Bahamas, swell direction is primarily NE with a period of 10-12 seconds. Life-threatening rip currents and powerful surf are likely along the southeastern United States coast and Bahamas over the next couple of days. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service Office or local meteorological service for more information on coastal and near-shore hazards. The low is expected to continue moving generally eastward while slowly weakening over the next couple of days, passing south of Bermuda on Fri night. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information on this western Atlantic Gale Warning. East Atlantic Disturbance near the Cabo Verde Islands (AL94): A 1006 mb low pressure system is located near 17.5N28W. A tropical wave is along 28W, south of 22N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 12N to 20N between 22W and 32W. Fresh to strong easterly winds and peak seas of 11 ft are occurring north of the low. If the circulation of the system becomes better defined and the showers and thunderstorms persist, the low could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm later this morning while it moves west-northwestward. Strong upper-level winds and dry air should end the chances of development by tonight or Sunday. Heavy rains and gusty winds are occurring over the western Cabo Verde Islands, and those conditions are expected to continue for a few more hours. The chance for formation through the next 48 hours is medium. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more information. Please also read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is present with this wave at this time. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted across the southern half of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues westward to a 1006 mb low pres (AL94) near 17N28W and then to 10N42W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 11N53W. Aside from the convection related to AL94 described above, no significant convection is noted al this time GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge over the SE United States supports fresh to strong easterly winds in the eastern Gulf as confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered showers are occurring in the eastern Gulf and Bay of Campeche, while generally dry conditions are noted in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, fresh NE winds over the eastern Gulf and moderate N to NE swell over most of the basin will gradually diminish towards the morning hours. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist today through the early part of next week. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to move into the northern Gulf Tue night, followed by fresh N to NE winds and building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean. The interaction between a surface trough W of 80W, the eastern Pacific monsoon trough and abundant tropical moisture sustain scattered showers and thunderstorms south of 19N and W of 80W. Scattered showers are also seen in the Windward Passage, related to the tail end of a frontal boundary that ends there. Elsewhere, drier conditions are prevalent. The weak pressure gradient across the basin sustains moderate to fresh easterly trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are present in the remainder of the Caribbean. However, a recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to near gale-force northerly winds are occurring in associated with the strong storms in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will persist over the eastern Caribbean through early next week, with mostly gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a western Atlantic Gale Warning, Tropical Storm Leslie in the north-central Atlantic and on a disturbance (AL94) in the far eastern Atlantic. Outside of the influence of all the systems in the Special Features section, high pressure dominates the waters west of 70W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the remnants of Milton support moderate to fresh NE-E north of 24N and west of 73W. Moderate to rough seas are found in these waters. Elsewhere, a broad subtropical ridge dominates, resulting in moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast W of 55W, the remnant low pressure of Milton is centered near 29N60.5W and is moving eastward at 15 to 20 kt. The low is supporting a broad area of strong to gale force winds and rough to very rough seas within 300 nm of the center. Associated large swell is spreading across the region north of 23N and east of the Bahamas. The gale conditions will dissipate early this morning as the weakening low pressure moves eastward. The swell generated by the low will persist west of it toward the Bahamas through tonight. Winds will diminish further through Sun. Gentle breezes and mostly 4 to 6 ft swell will prevail across the region into Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by the middle of next week, followed by fresh N winds and building seas. $$ ERA