000 AXNT20 KNHC 121754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Oct 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1610 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The Remnants of Leslie are centered near 33.3N 43.4W at 12/1500 UTC or 850 nm WSW of the Azores, moving NE at 27 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas to 20 ft are north of the area. Seas in excess of 12 ft are north of 30N between 42W and 46W. A gradual turn toward the east at a fast forward speed is expected starting tonight, with a continued eastward motion expected into early next week. The remnants of Leslie are expected to move over or very near the Azores Sunday and early Monday. The remnants of Leslie are expected to gradually weaken during the next couple of days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the FINAL Leslie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 30W, south of 22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N to 20N between 25W and 30W. This system has a LOW chance of developing into a tropical cyclone through the next 48 hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W, south of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is present with this wave at this time. A weak central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 18N, moving westward at an uncertain 10-15 kt. No significant convection is present with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W and continues westward to 1009 mb low pressure near 17N30W and then to 10N42W. The ITCZ continues from 10N42W to 10N54W. Scattered showers are near the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Mexico, as depicted by recent satellite scatterometer data. Seas are 3-5 ft. These conditions are the result of high pressure ridging over the SE United States and over east-central Mexico. Scattered showers are evident in the Straits of Florida and across the Florida Keys. For the forecast, gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist through the early part of next week. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to move into the northern Gulf Wed, followed by fresh N to NE winds and building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by an upper level low, is noted across the Gulf of Honduras. In the SW Caribbean, another area of scattered moderate convection, enhanced by the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is south of 13N between 77W and 81W. Scatterometer data and surface observations indicate gentle to moderate trades prevail across the basin, except in the south- central Caribbean where trades are pulsing to fresh speeds. Seas are 4-6 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will persist over the eastern and south-central Caribbean through early next week, with mostly gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above. The West Atlantic Gale Warning expired at 1200 UTC, with satellite scatterometer confirming wind speeds had decreased to below gale force. A cold front extends from 1006 mb low pressure (the former gale force low) centered near 31N54W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Fresh to strong winds surround the low and front north of 23N between 54W and 64W, with seas of 9-13 ft. Seas to 8 ft continue to reach the Atlantic Exposures of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, where rough surf and life-threatening rip currents are likely to continue through the weekend. In the remaining waters away from the influences of the SPECIAL FEATURES and the former gale force low and cold front, trades are gentle to moderate with 4-7 ft seas. For the forecast W of 55W, the remnant low pressure of Milton is centered near 31N55W and is moving to the E-NE at 15 to 20 kt. The low is supporting a area of strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas within 180 nm of the center. Associated large swell is spreading across the region north of 23N and east of the Bahamas. Winds will diminish through Sun as the low dissipates, and the swell will subside through late Sun. Gentle breezes and mostly 4 to 6 ft swell will prevail across the region Mon into Tue. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by the middle of next week, followed by fresh N winds and building seas. $$ Mahoney