000 AXNT20 KNHC 122302 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Oct 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W from 10N to 23N. Low pressure of 1009 mb is along the wave near 18N. This system is moving westward at 10-15 kt. An ASCAT satellite data pass highlighted fresh to strong northeast winds from 18N to 23N between 28W-34W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm east of the low. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of 15N29W. This activity has not become any better organized since yesterday. This system is moving into an environment that is less conducive for development, and therefore the chance of tropical cyclone formation appears to be decreasing. This system is forecast to move westward or west-southwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic through much of next week. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W/57W south of 16N. It is moving westward at an estimated motion of about 10-15 kt. Only isolated small showers and thunderstorms are evident within 60 to 90 nm of the wave from 10N to 15N. A weak central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W south of 18N to inland northwest Colombia, moving westward around 10 kt. Significant convection is not immediately occurring with this wave, however, it is observed to its west over portions of the western and southwestern Caribbean. More details on this below under Caribbean Sea. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Mauritania and Senegal, then curves southwestward to 15N20W and to the 1009 mb low that is near 18N30W. From there, it continues southwestward to 10N42W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 09N47W and to 11N55W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 51W-55W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure present over the southeastern United States that stretches southwestward to eastern Mexico is allowing for generally gentle to moderate northeast to east winds to remain over the basin. These winds were indicated by afternoon ASCAT satellite data passes. Seas are in the range of 2-4 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 3-5 ft over the southeastern Gulf, central and north-central Gulf sections. Clusters of moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the southeastern Gulf waters from 23N to 25N and east of 84W to sections of the Florida keys. A nearby surface trough in combination with a mid-level shortwave trough is helping to sustain this activity. The activity appears to be nearly stationary for the time being. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist through the early part of next week. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to move into the northern Gulf late Tue night into early Wed morning, followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds and building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection that is being enhanced by a rather large upper-level low is west of the tropical wave that is along 75W, covering portions of the western part of the basin to the far southwestern Caribbean waters. Some of this activity reaches to just inland Honduras and also to just inland the Nicaragua/Honduran coast. The southern extent of this convective activity is being enhanced some by the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough that is along 11N west of 75W. The most recent ASCAT satellite data passes indicate gentle to moderate trade winds over the basin, except over the eastern and south-central portions, where trade winds are of fresh speeds. Both buoy and altimeter satellite data passes reveal seas in the 3-5 ft range, except for slightly lower seas of 2-4 ft north of 15N west of 64W. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will persist over the eastern and south-central Caribbean through early next week, with mostly gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. Looking ahead, fresh expect fresh northeast winds and building seas over the Yucatan Channel, and over the far northwestern Caribbean by late Thu due to an early autumn season cold front that is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Low pressure of 1008 mb is analyzed near 30N55W, with a cold front trailing from it to 25N62W and to vicinity Turks and Caicos Islands. Ahead of it, a trough extends from 28N56W to 23N63W and to just north of Hispaniola. Fresh to strong winds surround the low and are on either side of the front north of 25N between 53W and 67W along with seas of 9-12 ft. Seas to 8 ft continue to reach the Atlantic Exposures of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, where rough surf and life-threatening rip currents are likely to continue through the rest of the weekend. Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms confined to an area bounded from 21N to 26N and between 53W-65W. To the southwest of this area, a small area of scattered showers and thunderstorms moving westward rather quickly is over the northern Leeward Islands. This activity is along the western periphery of a small upper-level low that is seen on water vapor imagery near 16N60W. High pressure of 1020 mb is analyzed over the eastern Atlantic at 29N33W while weak high pressure of 1016 mb is near 18N53W. High pressure covers the Atlantic to the east of the aforementioned cold front and trough. The high pressure gradient generally supports gentle to moderate trade winds. Seas across this part of the Atlantic are in the 4-7 ft range per altimeter satellite data passes and a few buoy observations. For the forecast W of 55W, the remnant low pressure of Milton is centered near 31N55W. The low is supporting an area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas within 120 nm of the center. Associated large northeast swell is spreading across the region north of 23N and east of the Bahamas. Winds will diminish through Sun as the low dissipates, and the swell will subside through late Sun. Gentle winds and mostly 4 to 6 ft swell will prevail across the region Mon into Tue. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to move over the waters off northeast Florida by the middle of next week, followed by fresh N winds and building seas. $$ Aguirre