000 AXNT20 KNHC 130521 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Oct 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave (AL94) is along 31W, south of 23N. A 1009 mb low pressure is along the wave near 18N. This system is moving westward at 10-15 kt. A recent scatterometer satellite data pass depicted fresh to locally strong cyclonic winds from 16N to 23N and between 27W to 36W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm east of the low. Seas of 6-9 ft are occurring from 14N to 25N and between 25W and 40W. The low is moving into an environment that is less conducive for development, and therefore during the next few days the chance of tropical cyclone formation appears to be decreasing. This system is forecast to move westward or west-southwestward across the tropical Atlantic, and it may encounter conditions more conducive for development over the western tropical Atlantic by the middle of next week. The formation chance through 7 days is low. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are evident within 120 nm on both sides of the trough axis. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and continues to a 1009 mb low pres (AL94) near 18N31W and to 09N45W. The ITCZ extends from 09N45W to 13N57W. Isolated showers are evident on satellite imagery near the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak subtropical ridge dominates the Gulf of Mexico, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found in the SE Gulf waters. A weak surface trough located north of Yucatan and tropical moisture supports isolated showers south of 26N and east of 90W. Drier conditions are present elsewhere. For the forecast, gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist through the early part of next week. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to move into the northern Gulf late Tue night into early Wed morning, followed by fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Abundant tropical moisture and divergence aloft supports isolated to scattered showers across the NW and SW Caribbean Sea, especially west of 76W. Meanwhile, an upper level low approaching the Leeward Islands is producing a few showers across the NE Caribbean. Drier conditions are noted in the central Caribbean. Building high pressure north of the Greater Antilles forces fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds in south-central Caribbean Sea. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are present in the north-central and eastern Caribbean waters. In the remainder of the basin, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will persist over the eastern and south-central Caribbean through early next week, with mostly gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. Looking ahead, fresh expect fresh NE winds and building seas over the Yucatan Channel and far northwest Caribbean by late Thu due to an early season cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1009 mb non-tropical low pressure system, remnant of Hurricane Milton, is centered near 31N54W, while a cold front extends from the low pres to 23N63W and to 22N72W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed 120 nm ahead of the cold front and north of 22N. Fresh to strong cyclonic are found north of 23N and between 50W and 60W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is dominated by a building subtropical ridge. Seas are moderate to rough in the SW North Atlantic. A 1022 mb high pressure system is analyzed over the eastern Atlantic at 26N33W, dominating the rest of the tropical Atlantic. A gale center north of the NE Atlantic result in moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 8-11 ft north of 29N and between 37W and 50W. Rough seas are also noted north of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh northerly winds and large NE swell associated to the remnants of Milton are spreading across the region north of 21N and east of the Bahamas. Seas will subside through late Sun. Gentle breezes and mostly 4 to 6 ft swell will prevail across the region Mon into Tue. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by the middle of next week, followed by fresh N winds and building seas. $$ Delgado