000 AXNT20 KNHC 131009 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Oct 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave (AL94) is along 33W, south of 22N. A 1009 mb low pressure is along the wave near 19N. This system is moving westward at 10-15 kt. A recent scatterometer satellite data pass depicted fresh to strong cyclonic winds from 16N to 23N and between 27W to 36W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm east of the low. Seas of 6-9 ft are occurring from 14N to 25N and between 25W and 40W. The low is moving into an environment that is less conducive for development, and therefore during the next few days the chance of tropical cyclone formation appears to be decreasing. This system is forecast to move westward or west-southwestward across the tropical Atlantic, and it may encounter conditions more conducive for development over the western tropical Atlantic by the middle of next week. The formation chance through 48 hours and 7 days is low. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are evident over the northern half of the wave. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails over the southern portion of the wave, where the wave meets the monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and continues to a 1009 mb low pres (AL94) near 19N33W and to 15N42W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the trough and E of 28W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak subtropical ridge dominates the Gulf of Mexico, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found in the SE Gulf waters. A weak surface trough located north of Yucatan and tropical moisture supports isolated showers south of 26N and east of 90W. Drier conditions are present elsewhere. For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail across the basin. With this, gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist through the early part of the week. A cold front is expected to move into the northern Gulf late Tue night into early Wed morning, followed by fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Abundant tropical moisture and divergence aloft supports scattered moderate convection across the NW and SW Caribbean Sea, especially W of 79W. Meanwhile, an upper level low is currently S of Puerto Rico, producing a few showers across the NE Caribbean. Drier conditions are noted in the central Caribbean. Building high pressure north of the Greater Antilles forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds in south-central Caribbean Sea. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are present in the north-central and eastern Caribbean waters. In the remainder of the basin, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will persist over the eastern and south-central Caribbean through early this week, and gentle breezes and slight seas will prevail elsewhere. Fresh expect fresh NE winds and building seas over the Yucatan Channel and far northwest Caribbean by late Thu due to an early season cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1010 mb low pressure is centered near 31N52W, with a cold front extends from the low to 25N59W, then the front becomes stationary to 21N73W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 29N51W to 24N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted 120 nm ahead of the front and trough and north of 22N. Fresh cyclonic winds are found north of 23N and between 35W and 58W. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere across the basin. Seas are moderate to rough in the SW North Atlantic. Rough seas are also noted north of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, seas are moderate to rough and moderate or weaker winds prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh northerly winds and large NE swell in the wake of a cold front are spreading across the region north of 21N and east of the Bahamas. Seas will subside today. Gentle breezes and mostly 4 to 6 ft swell will prevail across the region Mon into Tue. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by the middle of next week, followed by fresh N winds and building seas. $$ ERA