000 AXNT20 KNHC 131714 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Oct 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, from 10N to 22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. 1011 mb low pressure (AL94) is along the wave axis near 18N34W. Fresh to strong cyclonic winds are likely near the low pressure. No significant convection is noted at this time. This system has a LOW chance of development through the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 62W, south of 18N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted across the Lesser Antilles. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection, enhanced by an upper level low, is from 08N to 18N and west of 75W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic near Dakar, Senegal, and continues to 10N30W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the boundary. No segments of the ITCZ are analyzed at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressures centered over Mexico and the SE United States continue to provide light to gentle NE to N winds across most of the Gulf of Mexico, except in the SE Gulf where wind speeds are locally moderate. Seas are 2-4 ft. For the forecast, surface ridging and gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist through the early part of the week. A cold front is expected to move into the northern Gulf late Tue night into early Wed morning, followed by fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for information on tropical waves and active convection. Moderate to fresh trades, and 5-7 ft seas, prevail in the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, 3-5 ft seas and gentle trades prevail. Decaying N swell in the western Atlantic is resulting in locally higher seas in the Atlantic Passages, including the Mona Passage. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will persist over the eastern and south-central Caribbean through early this week, and gentle breezes and slight seas will prevail elsewhere. Fresh expect fresh NE winds and building seas over the Yucatan Channel and far northwest Caribbean by late Thu due to an early season cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N48W to 25N59 where a stationary front then continues to 22N73W. Moderate to fresh winds are on both sides of the front, with 8-9 ft seas. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N to 27N east of the front to 51W. A surface trough extending across the northern Bahamas to the Straits of Florida is producing scattered moderate convection in these areas. 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 27N32W and 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 30N69W. Light to gentle winds, mainly out of the east, prevail across the tropical and subtropical Atlantic. Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters. For the forecast W of 55W, lingering NE swell east of the Bahamas will subside through late today. Gentle breezes and mostly 4 to 6 ft swell will prevail across the region Mon into Tue. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by the middle of next week, followed by fresh N winds and building seas. At the same time, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will accompany a tropical wave moving into the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands Thu and Thu night. $$ Mahoney