000 AXNT20 KNHC 132100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Oct 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W, from 10N to 22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt with a 1011 mb low pressure (AL94) along the wave axis near 17.5N35W. No significant convection is noted at this time. This system is currently embedded in an unfavorable environment and development is not anticipated over the next couple of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward to west- southwestward, and environmental conditions could become more favorable for additional development by the mid to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west- northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands by the end of this week. There is a low chance of tropical cyclogenesis in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance for development in the next 7 days. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 63W, south of 18N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis. The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection, enhanced by an upper level low, is from 09N to 20N and west of 78W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Senegal and continues to 10N30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 14W and 23W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, are found E of 90W, while light to gentle winds, and seas of 2-3 ft are W of 90W. For the forecast, surface ridging prevails across the basin, supporting gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas through the early part of the week. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf late Tue night into early Wed morning, then sweep across the Gulf through into Thu. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front across the Gulf through Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trades, and 5-7 ft seas, prevail in the central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are found in the eastern Caribbean. Over the western Caribbean, light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, are noted. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will persist over the eastern and south-central Caribbean through early this week, and gentle breezes and slight seas will prevail elsewhere. Fresh expect fresh NE winds and building seas over the Yucatan Channel and far northwest Caribbean by late Thu due to an early season cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AL94 is centered near 17.5N35W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-10 ft, are noted over the northern semicircle of the low. Elsewhere, a cold front extends from 31N45W to 25N58W and continues as a stationary front to the SE Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 90 nm S of the front between 50W and 66W. Moderate to fresh winds are on both sides of the front N of 28N between 42W and 53W, where seas are in the 8-9 ft range. A surface trough across the northern Bahamas to the Straits of Florida is producing scattered moderate convection over these waters. A 1020 mb high pressure is centered near 27N38W and a 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 30N68W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Elsewhere, gentle winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, prevail over much of the open waters. For the forecast W of 55W, weak high pressure between northeast Florida and Bermuda will support gentle breezes and mostly 4 to 6 ft wave heights in NE swell across the region Mon into Tue. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by the middle of next week, followed by fresh N winds and building seas. At the same time, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will accompany low pressure moving from the tropical Atlantic to northeast of the Leeward Islands Thu and Fri. $$ AL