000 AXNT20 KNHC 140520 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Oct 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W, south of 22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt with a 1012 mb low pressure (AL94) along the wave axis near 17.5N36W. Scattered showers are found from 14N to 20N and between 32W and 37W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to strong easterly winds from 17N to 23N and between 32W and 40W. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. This system is currently embedded in an unfavorable environment and development is not anticipated over the next couple of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward to west-southwestward, and environmental conditions could become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands by the end of this week. There is a low chance of tropical cyclogenesis in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance for development in the next 7 days. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 65W, south of 18N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. The tropical wave is interacting with an upper level low currently south of eastern Hispaniola, resulting in scattered showers from 13N to 18N and between 61W and 68W. The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present across the NW Caribbean, especially west of 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues to 15N30W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 12N and east of 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 mb high pressure system over the NW Gulf of Mexico continues to sustain moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and seas of 2-4 ft. A few showers are seen in the SE Gulf, while generally dry conditions are prevalent in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, surface ridging prevails across the basin, supporting gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas through the early part of the week. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the northern Gulf late Tue night into early Wed morning, then sweep across the Gulf through into Thu. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front across the Gulf through Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft and abundant moisture continue to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean Sea. Meanwhile, high pressure north of the Greater Antilles forces fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured the strongest winds off northern Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 3-5 ft are found in the north- central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are evident in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will persist over the eastern and south-central Caribbean through early this week, and gentle breezes and slight seas will prevail elsewhere. Fresh expect fresh NE winds and building seas over the Yucatan Channel and far northwest Caribbean by late Thu due to an early season cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough in the NW Bahamas and divergence aloft continues to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 72W and south of 27W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depicted strong SE winds with the strongest convection. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N45W to 25N54W, then continues as a stationary front to 22N70W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm of the stationary front. Moderate to fresh cyclonic winds and seas of 6-9 ft are noted north of 25N and between 35W and 50W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 1022 mb high pressure near Bermuda and another subtropical ridge near 27N36W. These broad ridges support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast W of 55W, weak high pressure between northeast Florida and Bermuda will support gentle breezes and mostly 4 to 6 ft wave heights in NE swell across the region Mon into Tue. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by the middle of next week, followed by fresh N winds and building seas. At the same time, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will accompany low pressure moving from the tropical Atlantic to northeast of the Leeward Islands Thu and Fri. $$ Delgado