000 AXNT20 KNHC 141728 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Oct 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W, south of 22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt with 1011 mb low pressure (AL94) along the wave axis near 17N39W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the low pressure. Scatterometer this morning showed fresh to locally strong cyclonic winds within 150 nm of the northern semicircle of the low. There is a LOW chance of tropical cyclone development through the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W, south of 20N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. The analysis this morning was assisted by Upper Air Sounding Data from San Juan and Santo Domingo. Scattered showers are from 12N to 18N between 61W and 68W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 13N16W and continues to 10N36W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 11N east of 22W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1021 mb high pressure over the NW Gulf and 1022 mb high pressure over central Mexico continue to provide light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin. Seas are 2-4 ft. A weak surface trough is analyzed in the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will dominate much of the basin through Tue ahead of a cold front forecast to move into the northern Gulf Tue night. The front, followed by fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas, will reach the Florida Straits and move E of the area Wed night into Thu. Fresh to strong winds will start to diminish late Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Widespread moderate scattered strong convection, enhanced by upper level divergence and the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is evident on satellite from the coast of Panama north to 15N between 76W and 82W. Earlier scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean, and satellite altimeter data sampled 5-7 ft seas in the region. Elsewhere, trades are mainly moderate and seas are 3-5 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds over the eastern and central Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds on Wed and then prevail through Fri night. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed evening followed by moderate to fresh NNE winds. The front will reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu evening and from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras Fri evening. Rough seas are expected during this period over the Yucatan Channel. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N40W to 25N53W, where a stationary front then continues to 23N74W then across the northern Bahamas and finally across the Florida Peninsula north of Lake Okeechobee. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the fronts, mainly in the central Atlantic segments. Scatterometer data shows light to gentle NE to E winds north of the fronts. In terms of the meteorology, it is notable that this early season frontal zone has persisted this long over the warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean. This persistence is likely an outcome of deep layer airmass advection by Hurricane Milton and its remnants at the end of last week. High pressure ridging and a weak pressure gradient allows for light to gentle trades and 4-7 ft seas across the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, weak high pressure between northeast Florida and Bermuda will support gentle breezes and moderate seas in NE swell across the region today into Tue. A cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by Wed morning, followed by fresh to strong N winds and rough seas. By Wed night, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will also accompany a low pressure moving from the tropical Atlantic to northeast of the Leeward Islands Thu and N of Puerto Rico Fri night. $$ Mahoney