000 AXNT20 KNHC 142050 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Oct 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W, south of 22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt with 1011 mb low pressure (AL94) along the wave axis near 17N40W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the low pressure center. This system is currently embedded in a dry air environment, and tropical cyclone development is unlikely over the next couple of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward toward warmer waters, and environmental conditions could become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands late this week. There is a LOW chance of tropical cyclone development through the next 48 hours, and a MEDIUM chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W, south of 20N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 15N to 18N between 70W and 75W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 13N16W to 08N24W to 10N37W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N east of 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure generally prevails over the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, are E of 90W, with light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, W of 90W. For the forecast, gentle to moderate NNE winds will dominate much of the basin through Tue ahead of a cold front forecast to move into the northern Gulf Tue night. The front, followed by fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas, will reach the Florida Straits and move E of the area Wed night into Thu. However, fresh to strong winds will start to diminish late Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Widespread moderate scattered strong convection, enhanced by upper level divergence and the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is evident on satellite from the coast of Panama north to 15N between 75W and 83W. Moderate to fresh trades, and seas of 4-7 ft are over the central Caribbean. Over the eastern Caribbean, moderate winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are noted. Gentle winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, prevail over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds over the eastern and central Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds on Wed and then prevail through Sat night. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed evening followed by moderate to fresh NNE winds. The front will reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu night and from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras Fri evening. Rough seas are expected during this period over the Yucatan Channel. Fresh NE winds associated with the front will also funnel through the Windward Passage Fri evening through Sat night aided by an approaching area of low pressure, Invest AL94, approaching the Turks and Caicos from the east. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1011 mb area of low pressure (AL94) is centered near 17N40W. Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, prevail N of the low center. A cold front extends from 31N38W to 27N44W, where a stationary front then continues to 22N72W then across the northern Bahamas and finally across the south Florida Peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-8 ft, are N of the front. Two area of high pressure are over the area. One is a 1018 mb high centered near 24N49W, and the other is a 1017 mb high near 25N30W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are near the high centers. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to fresh SW to W winds associated with a pre-frontal trough and an approaching cold front from the west will continue to affect the NE Florida and the northern Bahamas offshore waters through Tue. Looking ahead, the leading cold front will stall Tue night while a second and stronger cold front come off the Georgia coast. The second cold front will merge with the leading front on Wed and will bring fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas to the Florida and the Bahamas offshore waters through the weekend. Otherwise, Invest AL94, is forecast to move to the offshore waters N of Puerto Rico on Fri and merge with the front conditions NE of the Dominican Republic on Sat. $$ AL