000 AXNT20 KNHC 150548 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Oct 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... ...INVEST-AL94 LOW PRESSURE CENTER... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/41W, from 21N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 10.5N along the tropical wave. Moderate to near-rough seas are within 630 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Moderate seas are elsewhere within 630 nm of the center. Strong winds are within 210 nm of the center from the NNW to the NE quadrant. Fresh winds are elsewhere within 330 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 16N to 20N between 37W and 45W, to the east and to the west and northwest of the 1011 mb low pressure center. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 11N to 19N between 25W and 35W This system currently is embedded in a dry air environment. Development is unlikely during the next couple of days. This system is forecast to move generally westward. The environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week. It is possible that a tropical depression may form. The forecast movement is west-northwestward. It is possible that the feature may approach or move close to the Leeward Islands late this week. Please, refer to the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. The monsoon trough is along 11N75W in Colombia, through western Panama/ southern Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 03N to 09N between 73W and 79W, mostly in Colombia and in parts of eastern Panama; and in the Caribbean Sea from 12N to 16N between 75W and 79W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 14N to Puerto Rico and the eastern sections of the Dominican Republic between 65W and 70W. A tropical wave is along 92W/93W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. The northern parts of the tropical wave are moving through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 24N southward from 89W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau, to 05N24W, to the 1011 mb low pressure center that is near 16.5N along the 40W/41W tropical wave, that is described in the Special Features section. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 11N between 09W and 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front/stationary front is in the coastal plains of the U.S.A. that border the northern sections of the Gulf of Mexico. No significant deep convective precipitation accompanies the frontal boundary. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 27N92W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 24N northward. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough passes from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, through the Yucatan Peninsula, to the Caribbean Sea close to eastern Honduras, and to the northeast of Nicaragua. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are 27N82W 25N90W 25N98W southward. Slight seas, and mostly moderate or slower winds, are in the Gulf of Mexico. An exception is for fresh NE winds from 21N to 24N between 91W and 96W. Gentle to moderate NNE winds will dominate much of the basin through Tue ahead of a cold front forecast to move into the northern Gulf Tue night. The front, followed by fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas, will reach the Florida Straits and move E of the area Wed night into Thu. Fresh to strong winds will start to diminish late Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough passes through the Yucatan Peninsula, to northern Belize, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, close to eastern Honduras, and to the northeast of Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the areas that are from 13N northward from Jamaica westward, and away from the 73W/74W tropical wave precipitation. It is possible that a broad area of low pressure may develop in the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter parts of this week. Some gradual development is possible after the latter parts of the week, if the system stays in the water, while it moves slowly west-northwestward toward northern Central America. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in parts of Central America later this week. Fresh to moderate easterly winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. Fresh to moderate NE winds are within 210 nm on either side of the 73W/74W tropical wave. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate seas are from 81W eastward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 15/0000 UTC, are: 0.19 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Moderate to fresh winds over the eastern and central Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds on Wed and then prevail through Sat night. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed evening followed by moderate to fresh NNE winds. The front will reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu night and from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras Fri evening. Rough seas are expected during this period over the Yucatan Channel. Fresh NE winds associated with the front will also funnel through the Windward Passage Fri evening through Sat night aided by an approaching area of low pressure, Invest AL94, approaching the Turks and Caicos from the east. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section, for details about the 1011 mb area of low pressure (INVEST-AL94). Fresh to strong SW winds are from 28N northward between 14W and 26W, to the south of a frontal boundary. Moderate to near-rough seas are from 08N southward from 20W eastward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh N winds are from 18N to 21N from 20W eastward. Fresh SE winds are from 04N southward between 35W and 40W. Fresh NE winds are from 03N southward between 47W and 50W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough passes through 31N71W to 26N74W. Southerly fresh to strong winds are from 25N northward between 64W and the surface trough. Slight seas are from 70W westward. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 180 nm to the SE of the surface trough from 27N northward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 27N southward from 70W westward. A cold front is along 31N33W, to a 1017 mb 29N42W low pressure center, curving to 25N50W. A 1017 mb low pressure center is near 28N58W. An occluded front extends from the 28N58W low pressure center, to a 27N53W triple point. A stationary front continues from 27N53W to 25N50W. A stationary front continues from 27N53W, to 23N60W and 22N66W. The stationary front is dissipating from 22N66W, to 21N76W close to the SE Bahamas and the coast of Cuba. Mostly moderate to some fresh winds are from the frontal boundary northward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to strong is from 21N to 27N between 53W and 60W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 50W westward from 20N northward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 27N northward from 40W eastward. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds associated with a pre-frontal trough and an approaching cold front from the west will continue to affect the NE Florida and the northern Bahamas offshore waters through Tue. Looking ahead, the cold front will stall Tue night while a second and stronger cold front come off the Georgia coast. The fronts will merge on Wed and will bring fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas to the Florida and the Bahamas offshore waters through the weekend. Invest AL94 is forecast to move to the offshore waters N of Puerto Rico on Fri and merge with the front NE of the Dominican Republic on Sat. $$ mt/era