000 AXNT20 KNHC 151746 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Oct 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 21N southward through a 1010 mb low (Invest AL94) near 16N43W, and moving westward 10 kt. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are present north of 16N between 38W and 45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N to 18N between 39W and 45W. Environmental conditions could become more conducive for a gradual development by midweek. A tropical depression could form as this system approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands late this week. There is a medium chance for tropical formation within the next 2 to 7 days. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 76W from near Jamaica southward into northwestern Colombia, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous heavy showers and scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring at the south-central Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, and runs southwestward to 06N27W. Afterward, it turns northwestward to a 1010 mb low near 16N43W, then turns southwestward again to 13N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and south of the trough from 04N to 08N between 12W and 45W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms at the southwestern Caribbean Sea near Costa Rica and Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front curves northwestward from north of Tampa, Florida to 29N87W, then continues as a stationary front to beyond New Orleans. No significant convection is noted near this boundary. Convergent surface winds and a surface trough are causing isolated thunderstorms at the Straits of Florida and the Bay of Campeche respectively. Otherwise, a 1018 mb high southeast of New Orleans is dominating much fo the Gulf. Gentle to moderate SW to NW winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present at the northwestern Gulf and the western Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, gentle to moderate NNE winds will dominate much of the Gulf through today, ahead of a much stronger cold front forecast to move into the northern Gulf tonight. This front, followed by fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will reach from Tampa Bay to 26N90W to northeastern Mexico near 27N97W Wed morning and the Florida Straits Wed night. This front will then stall between the Yucatan Channel and far northwestern Caribbean through Fri before dissipating Sat. Fresh to strong winds will start to diminish late Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough reaches eastward from the Yucatan Peninsula to near the Cayman Islands. This feature is producing widely scattered moderate convection at the northwestern basin. An upper-level low near 16N72W is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of Hispaniola and near the ABC Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Caribbean Basin. Fresh with locally strong NE to SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are evident at the southwestern and south-central basin. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted across the west-central, north-central and eastern basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds over the eastern and central basin will diminish to between gentle and moderate on Wed and then prevail through Sat night. A cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean Wed evening followed by moderate to fresh NNE winds. The front will then stall there through Fri before dissipating Sat. Rough seas are expected during this period over the Yucatan Channel. Fresh NE winds associated with the portion of the front north of the area will also funnel through the Windward Passage Fri evening through Sat night, aided by a low pressure, Invest AL94, approaching the Turks and Caicos from the east. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from the northwestern Atlantic across 31N75W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Converging winds south of this feature are inducing isolated thunderstorms near the southeast Bahamas and north of 27N between 65W and 72W. An upper- level low near 23N53W is causing scattered moderate convection from 20N to 22N between 56W and 59W. A weak frontal boundary extends southwestward from a 1014 mb low at 31N24W to a 1016 mb low at 26N40w, then curves northwestward to another 1016 mb low at 28N58W, and finally continues southwestward as a surface trough to 25N66W. Patchy showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 100 nm along either side of these features. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh SW to NE to SE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted north of 27N between 30W and 68W. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft dominate north of 21N between 30W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Farther south outside the influence of AL94 mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, gentle with locally moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are found from 11N to 21N between the central Africa coast and Lesser Antilles, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Near the Canary Islands, gentle with locally moderate to fresh SW to W winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds with seas at 5 to 8 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW to W winds associated with the tail of a pre-frontal trough and the aforementioned cold front will continue to affect the offshore waters north of 28N and west of 60W through this evening. Looking ahead, a second and stronger cold front will come off the Georgia coast tonight followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas that will affect the Florida and the Bahamas offshore waters through Sat night. Invest AL94 is forecast to move to the offshore waters north of Puerto Rico by Fri evening and north of the Dominican Republic on Sat before merging with the remnants of the front Sat night. $$ Chan