000
AXNT20 KNHC 152108
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Oct 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W/44W from
21N southward through a 1010 mb low (Invest AL94) near 16N43.55W,
and moving westward 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 15N to 19N between 42W and 48W. This system is 
forecast to move generally westward, and environmental conditions 
appear marginally conducive for gradual development by the middle 
to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as 
the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or 
moves near the Leeward Islands late this week. There is a LOW 
chance of tropical cyclone development through the next 48 hours, 
and a MEDIUM chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 7
days. Please refer to the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued 
by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more 
details.

The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is near 77W S of 
20N, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered to numerous 
moderate to strong convection is S of 17N between 72W and 81W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa
near 14N17W to 06N26W to 16N43.5W to 09N51W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the
monsoon trough between 19W and 35W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extends across the NE Gulf. High
pressure dominates the remainder of the Gulf. Light to gentle
winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, prevail across the Gulf waters. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate NNE winds will dominate much
of the basin through ahead of a cold front forecast to move into 
the northern Gulf tonight. The front, followed by fresh to strong 
N to NE winds and rough seas, will reach from Tampa Bay to 26N90W 
to NE Mexico near 27N97W Wed morning and from the Florida Straits 
to the Yucatan Peninsula Wed night. The front will then stall 
between the Yucatan Channel and the far NW Caribbean through Fri 
before dissipating Sat. Fresh to strong winds will start to 
diminish late Sun. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail in the 
central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the 
remainder of the Caribbean waters. Seas of 4-6 ft are over the 
eastern Caribbean with seas of 2-3 ft over the western Caribbean. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds over the eastern and 
central Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds on 
Wed and then prevail through Sat night. A cold front will enter 
the NW Caribbean Wed evening followed by moderate to fresh NNE 
winds. The front will then stall there through Fri before 
dissipating Sat. Rough seas are expected during this period over 
the Yucatan Channel. Fresh NE winds associated with the portion of
the front N of the area will also funnel through the Windward 
Passage Fri evening through Sat night aided by an approaching area
of low pressure, Invest AL94, approaching the Turks and Caicos 
from the east. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N24W to 25N50W. Moderate to fresh
winds, and seas of 5-8 ft, prevail N of the front. Fresh to strong
winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, are noted N of Invest AL94. Light to
gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters.
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range E of 60W, and 3-5 ft W of 60W.  

For the forecast W of 55W, moderate SW to W winds associated will
prevail over the offshore waters N of 30N and W of 60W through 
this evening. A second and stronger cold front will come off the 
Georgia coast tonight followed by fresh to strong northerly winds 
and rough seas that will affect the Florida and the Bahamas 
offshore waters through Sat night. Invest AL94 is forecast to move
to the offshore waters N of Puerto Rico by Fri evening and N of 
the Dominican Rep on Sat before merging with the remnants of the 
front Sat night. Conditions will start improving across the 
offshore waters W of 65W late on Sun. 

$$
AL