000 AXNT20 KNHC 160548 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Oct 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... ...INVEST-AL94 LOW PRESSURE CENTER... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W, from 21N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 16N along the tropical wave. Moderate to near- rough seas are from 17N northward between 40W and 50W. Strong winds are within 270 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Fresh winds are elsewhere within 540 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 14N to 20N between 42W and 50W, around the low pressure center. This system is forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward. The environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive for gradual development during the latter part of this week. It is possible that a tropical depression may form as the system moves near the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands late this week. Please, refer to the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. The monsoon trough is along 10N, from 75W in Colombia, to 10N80W, beyond the border of Panama and Colombia, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 07N to 10N between the tropical wave and 82W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 750 nm to the east of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border areas of Senegal and Gambia, to 04N23W, to the 16N45W 1010 mb INVEST- AL94 low pressure center, from the Special Features section. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 420 nm to the north of the monsoon trough, and within 360 nm to the south of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is along 29N. Fresh to strong northerly winds are from the cold front northward, from the Florida Big Bend westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 60 nm on either side of the front. A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 26N94W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is from the SW Gulf surface trough that is to the south, and the cold front that is to the north. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough passes from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, through the Yucatan Peninsula, to the Caribbean Sea close to eastern Honduras, and to the northeast of Nicaragua. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 25N southward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Slight seas also are in the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front has entered the NE portion of the basin. This front, followed by strong to near gale N to NE winds and rough seas, will reach from Tampa Bay to 26N90W to NE Mexico near 27N97W Wed morning and from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula Wed night. The front will then stall between the Yucatan Channel and the far NW Caribbean through Fri before dissipating Sat. Fresh to strong winds will start to diminish late Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough passes through the Yucatan Peninsula, to northern Belize, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea near 17N85W, and curving around Honduras and Nicaragua, to 12N81W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 79W westward. This precipitation also is to the west of the 78W tropical wave. Isolated moderate to locally strong also is from 25N southward in the Gulf of Mexico; and in the Caribbean Sea in the remainder of the areas that are from the 78W tropical wave westward. Some gradual development is possible, if the system stays in the water, while it moves slowly northwestward toward Central America. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in parts of Central America later this week. Fresh E to SE winds are between 67W and 75W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate seas are from 80W eastward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 16/0000 UTC, are: 0.19 in Guadeloupe; and 0.01 in Curacao. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Moderate to fresh winds over the eastern and central Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds on Wed and then prevail through Sat night. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed evening, followed by moderate to fresh NNE winds. The front will then stall there through Fri before dissipating Sat. Rough seas are expected during this period over the Yucatan Channel. Fresh NE winds associated with the portion of the front N of the area will also funnel through the Windward Passage Fri evening through Sat night aided by an approaching area of low pressure, Invest AL94, approaching the Turks and Caicos from the east. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section, for details about the 1010 mb area of low pressure (INVEST-AL94). Moderate to rough seas are from 20N southward from 30W eastward. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 60W eastward. Slight seas are from 60W westward. A cold front passes through 31N76W, to the coast of Florida near 29N81W, and then along 29N in the Gulf of Mexico. A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is along 31N12W 28N31W 25N46W. Fresh NE winds are from the surface trough northward from 20W westward. A second surface trough curves along 30N53W 25N58W 24N65W. Fresh SE winds are from 26N northward between 51W and 57W. A third surface trough passes through 31N63W, to 28N67W, to 24N73W. Fresh SW winds are from 30N northward between 60W and the surface trough. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the areas that are from 20N northward from 50W eastward; from 10N northward between 50W and 60W; and elsewhere from 60W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 16/0000 UTC, are: 0.31 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A cold front has entered the W Atlantic this evening, and will be followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas that will affect the Florida and the Bahamas offshore waters through Sat night. Invest AL94 is forecast to move to the offshore waters N of Puerto Rico by Fri evening and N of the Dominican Rep on Sat before merging with the remnants of the front Sat night. Conditions will start improving across the offshore waters W of 65W late on Sun. $$ mt/era