795 AXNT20 KNHC 161026 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Oct 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 47W from 21N southward through a 1010 mb low (Invest AL94) near 16N46W, and moving westward 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N to 19N between 42W and 48W. This system is forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward, and environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development during the latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system moves near the Leeward and Virgin Islands late this week. There is a LOW chance of tropical cyclone development through the next 48 hours, and a MEDIUM chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days. The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is near 79W S of 20N, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is S of 17N between 72W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 14N17W to 06N26W to 16N43.5W to 09N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the monsoon trough between 19W and 35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from 28N83W to 29N95W. At this time, strong N winds are developing behind the front across the gulf states offshore waters, with moderate seas. light and variable winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, the front, followed by strong to near gale N to NE winds and rough seas, will reach from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. The front will then stall between the Yucatan Channel and the far NW Caribbean through Fri before dissipating Sat. Fresh to strong winds will start to diminish late Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail in the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the Caribbean waters. Seas of 4-6 ft are over the eastern Caribbean with seas of 2-3 ft over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds over the eastern and central Caribbean will prevail through Sat night. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean tonight, followed by moderate to fresh NNE winds. The front will then stall there through Fri before dissipating Sat. Rough seas are expected during this period over the Yucatan Channel. Fresh NE winds associated with the portion of the front N of the area will also funnel through the Windward Passage Fri evening through Sat night aided by an approaching broad area of low pressure, Invest AL94, approaching the Turks and Caicos from the east. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave/AL94. A cold front extends from 31N75W to 28N81W. Moderate NW winds and slight seas prevail N of the front. To the east, a surface trough extends from 31N62W to 24N73W. Scattered moderate convection prevails over the southern portion of the trough, mainly S of 28N between 68W-80W. Another trough is analyzed over the eastern Atlantic from 31N18W to 26N44W. No significant convection is related to this trough at this time. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue moving E across the basin. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will affect the Florida and the Bahamas offshore waters through Sat night. Invest AL94 is forecast to move to the offshore waters N of Puerto Rico by Fri evening and N of the Dominican Rep on Sat before merging with the remnants of the front Sat night. Conditions will start improving across the offshore waters W of 65W late on Sun. $$ ERA