000 AXNT20 KNHC 161806 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Oct 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central America and southeastern Mexico Significant Rainfall: A 1010 mb low pressure has formed at the southwestern Caribbean, east of Nicaragua. This low is expected to gradually become better organized over the next few days,then move generally northwestward into the northwestern Caribbean late this week into early next week. This system could bring significant rainfall to Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the southeastern Mexico from this Friday through Monday next week, increasing the chance for flooding and landslide. Residents in these countries need to monitor this developing situation closely and listen to the latest forecast from their local meteorological agencies. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 20N southward through a 1011 mb low (Invest AL94) near 16N49W, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas exist from 16N to 21N between 45W and 52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted mainly north and northwest of the low center from 15N to 18N between 47W and 53W. Environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive for gradual development later this week, and a tropical depression could form as this system approaches the Leeward and Virgin Islands late this week. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 2 to 7 days. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from the Cayman Islands southward through Panama into the East Pacific. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is S of 17N between 72W and 83W. Interaction between this wave and the 1010 mb low mentioned in the Special Features section is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms across the southwestern and central Caribbean waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast near Conakry, extends southwestward to 05N25W, then turns northwestward to 08N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 180 nm along either side of the trough. No ITCZ is present based on the latest analysis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front curves westward from near Tampa, Florida to beyond Corpus Christi, Texas. Scattered showers are seen near and up to 50 nm south of the front east of 91W. For west of 91W, scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms with wind gust up to 30 kt and rough seas are found up to 80 nm south of the front. A surface trough is persisting across the west-central and southwestern Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up the southwestern, south-central Gulf and Florida Straits. Fresh to locally near-gale NNE to NE winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft are present across the northern Gulf behind the front. Moderate to locally fresh NNE to NE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted between 23N and the front. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the front will reach the Florida Straits and the Yucatan Peninsula this evening and then stall tonight along the Yucatan Channel through Fri before dissipating Sat. The pressure gradient resulting from strong high pressure building behind the front and the remnants of the front will support moderate to fresh NE to E winds across much of the basin Sun through Mon morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about potential heavy rainfall late this week into early next week. A surface trough extends northwestward from the 1010 mb low mentioned in the Special Features section to near the Yucatan Channel. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh with locally strong E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the central basin. Gentle NE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist at the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate E to S winds along with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds over the eastern and central Caribbean will prevail through Sat night. A cold front will enter the northwestern basin tonight, followed by moderate to fresh NNE winds. The front will then stall along the Yucatan Channel through Fri before dissipating Sat. Rough seas are also expected during this period over the Yucatan Channel. Fresh NE winds associated with the portion of the front north of the area will also funnel through the Windward Passage Fri evening through Sat night aided by an approaching broad area of low pressure, Invest AL94, approaching the Turks and Caicos from the east. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front and the remnants of the front will support moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the northwestern Caribbean Sat through Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from a 1010 mb low off the Carolina across 31N75W to beyond Cape Canaveral, Florida. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 60 nm southeast of the front. Convergent southerly winds to the south are coupling with strong divergent winds aloft to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the Bahamas northeastward to near 31N70W. An old frontal trough stretches west-southwestward from northeast of the Canary Islands through 31N13W to 24N43W. Patchy rain are occurring up to 60 nm along either side of this feature. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Fresh to strong NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present off the northeast Florida coast behind the aforementioned cold front. At the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate north of 25N between 20W and 42W. Otherwise, gentle with locally moderate E to SE to S winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted north of 21N between the northwest Africa coast and Florida-Georgia coast. Farther south from 09N to 21N between the central Africa coast and Lesser Antilles, outside the influence of AL94, gentle to moderate NNE to ESE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft are evident. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal westerly winds along with 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the front will reach from 31N74W southwestward to the Straits of Florida this evening with fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas extending to the southern Florida coastal and offshore waters as well as the northwest Bahamas offshore waters. The front will reach from 31N68W to the central Bahamas by Thu morning while its tail stalls along the Florida Straits and the Yucatan Channel. By Fri morning the front will move east of Bermuda and winds over the northern offshore waters will start to diminish. Invest AL94 is forecast to move to the offshore waters north of Puerto Rico by Fri evening and north of the Dominican Republic on Sat before merging with the remnants of the front Sat night. Conditions will start improving across the offshore waters west of 65W late on Sun. $$ Chan