000 AXNT20 KNHC 170559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Oct 17 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central America and southeastern Mexico Significant Rainfall: A 1008 mb low pressure center is close to 15.5N 81.5W, about 110 nm to the WSW of the coastal border of eastern Honduras and NE Nicaragua. Some gradual development is possible during the next couple of days, if the system stays in the water, while it moves slowly northwestward toward Central America. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in parts of Central America and in southern Mexico late this week and into the weekend. It is possible that this weather system may bring significant rainfall to Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the southeastern part of Mexico, from this Friday through Monday of the next week. The chance for flooding and landslides will increase. Residents of these countries must monitor this developing situation closely, and listen to the latest forecasts from their local meteorological agencies. The 1008 mb low pressure center has been along an 81W/82W tropical wave. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are from 70W westward. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough extends from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, through the Yucatan Peninsula, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, to the 1008 mb low pressure center. Fresh winds are within 240 nm of the low pressure center in the E quadrant. Fresh to strong winds are from 18N northward between SE Cuba and 85W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... ...INVEST-AL94 LOW PRESSURE CENTER... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/52W, from 21N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 16.5N along the tropical wave. Moderate to near-rough seas are from 19N to 23N between 50W and 56W. Moderate seas are elsewhere within a 300 nm radius of the low pressure center. Strong winds are within 420 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Fresh winds are elsewhere within 600 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 330 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The environmental conditions appear to be only marginally conducive for slow development. The disturbance is moving quickly westward to west-northwestward 20 mph. The disturbance is forecast to pass close to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday, then close to the Greater Antilles during the weekend. Please, refer to the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W, to 06N27W, 08N40W, to the INVEST-AL94 low pressure center. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 600 nm to the north of the monsoon trough, and within 300 nm to the south of the monsoon trough. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through 25.5N in South Florida, to 24N90W, beyond 25N at the coast of NE Mexico. is along 29N. Fresh to strong northerly winds are from the cold front northward, from the Florida Big Bend westward. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 30N84W 27N90W 29N96W southward. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. This trough eventually extends into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details. Strong to near gale-force NE winds are: to the north of 25N81W-to-NW Cuba; to the north of 22.5N90W 24N98W; and from 22N southward from 94W eastward. Rough seas are from 25N to 29N from 84W westward, and from the cold front to 28N from 90W eastward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends from 25N81W in far southern Florida westward to 25N98W in far northern Mexico. The front will continue to progress southward, reaching the Florida Straits and the Yucatan Channel tonight. Strong to Near Gale force NE winds and rough seas of 8 to 11 ft will continue along and behind the front across much of the basin. The front is expected to stall along the Yucatan Channel into this upcoming weekend. The pressure gradient between this front and building high pressure over the southeastern United States will support fresh to strong NE winds over much of the basin this weekend into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, refer to SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the developing low pressure center, and the potential for heavy rainfall, and flooding/mudslides, in parts of Central America, during the next five days to six days. Moderate seas are in the Yucatan Channel. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh easterly winds are from 16N southward between 67W and 75W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 17/0000 UTC, are: 0.45 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Moderate to locally fresh E winds will occur over the central and eastern Caribbean through late Sat. A cold front progressing through the southern Gulf of Mexico will reach the northwestern Caribbean tonight and stall over the Yucatan Channel into the upcoming weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas will occur along and south of this front into early next week. Fresh NE winds, associated with this front and aided by an approaching broad area of low pressure, Invest 94L, will funnel through the Windward Passage Fri evening into Sun morning. Invest 94L is forecast to move generally westward to west- northwestward, and environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development late this week and into the weekend. A tropical depression could form as the system moves near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near the Greater Antilles over the weekend. Elsewhere, a broad area of low pressure has formed over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development is possible over the next couple of days if the system stays over water while it moves slowly northwestward toward Central America. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section, for details about the 1010 mb area of low pressure (INVEST-AL94). A cold front passes through 31N73W, through the NW Bahamas, beyond 25.5N in South Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is along 27N72W, through the Bahamas, to NW Jamaica. Moderate to rough seas are from the cold front westward and northwestward. Strong northerly winds are from 78W westward. Slight seas are between 61W and the 31N73W-to-NW Bahamas cold front. Fresh southerly winds are from 30N northward between 68W and the cold front. Fresh SE winds are within 90 nm of Hispaniola between 68W and 72W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from SE Cuba to 25N in the Bahamas between 74W and 77W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, is in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean that is from 60W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 17/0000 UTC, are: 0.02 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A shear line is along 24N48W 25N30W, to 28N at the coast of SW Morocco. Rough seas are to the north of 23N40W 26N24W 31N10W. Strong NE winds are within 210 nm to the north of the shear line between 25W and 40W. Fresh NE to E winds are elsewhere from the shear line northward from 45W eastward. Strong northerly winds are from 19N to 22N from 20W eastward. Fresh NE winds are from 10N to 19N between 24W and 34W. Fresh southerly winds are from 03N southward between 10W and 17W. A cold front extends from 31N73W southwestward to 26N80W and through the Gulf of Mexico. The front will continue to progress southward, reaching the Florida Straits tonight. Strong to Near Gale force N to NNE winds and rough seas of 8 to 10 ft will continue along and behind the front off the east coast of Florida, generally west of 75W and north of 24N. The front is expected to stall over the Florida Straits into this upcoming weekend. The pressure gradient between this front and building high pressure over the southeastern United States will then support fresh to strong NE winds north of 21N and west of 70W this weekend into early next week. Low pressure centered near 16N52W, Invest AL94, is forecast to move generally westward to west- northwestward, and environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development late this week and into the weekend. A tropical depression could form as the system moves near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near the Greater Antilles over the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E trade winds will prevail over the much of the basin this weekend through next week. $$ mt/ea