289 AXNT20 KNHC 171805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Oct 17 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central America and southern Mexico Significant Rainfall: A 1006 mb low pressure is centered near 15N82W, off the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. This system is forecast to move generally northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean and could bring significant rainfall to northern Honduras, the Veracruz and Tabasco States of Mexico and the eastern parts of Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula from Friday through Monday next week. This will increase the chance for flooding and landslides. Residents in these countries need to monitor this developing situation closely and listen to the latest forecast from their local meteorological agencies. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A newly analyzed tropical wave is off the Africa coast near 18W from 19N southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up from 05N to 17N between the Africa coast and 22W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 22N southward through a 1011 mb low (Invest AL94) near 17N56W, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are evident from 17N to 23N between 51W and 60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16N to 21N between 51W and 61W. Some slow development is still possible as this system passes near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas over the weekend. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone development through the next 7 days. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from near the Cayman Islands southward through western Panama into the East Pacific. It is moving westward at 5 kt. Interaction with a 1006 mb low off the Nicaragua/Honduras coast is causing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection at the southwestern Carribbean, and near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, then extends southwestward to 05N34W. An ITCZ curves northwestward from 05N34W to 08N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 200 nm along either side of the monsoon trough west of 22W. Widely scattered showers is seen up to 50 nm along either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front curves westward from the Florida Straits, passing just north of the Yucatan Channel to near Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 60 nm along either side of the front, including the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft are present from the front northward to near 26N. North of 26N, moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas exist. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNW to NE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche and Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the front will move into the northwestern Caribbean waters tonight and stall there on Friday before it lifts back to the Straits of Florida and dissipate over the weekend. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 11 ft will continue to affect much of the Gulf through Sun night as strong high pressure builds over the southeast United States in its wake. NE winds will diminish to between moderate and fresh on Mon and prevail through mid week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about potential heavy rainfall late this week into early next week. A surface trough reaches northwestward from a 1006 mb low off the coast of Nicaragua/Honduras to beyond Belize. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen at the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are found near the Island of Youth and south of the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present at the central basin, and the rest of the northwestern basin. Mainly gentle E to SE to S winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E winds over the central basin will diminish to between gentle and moderate by Fri evening. A cold front currently over northwestern Cuba and the Yucatan Channel will move into the northwestern Caribbean waters tonight and stall there on Friday before it lifts back to the Straits of Florida and dissipate over the weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas associated with the front and high pressure building in its wake will affect the northwestern basin through Sun. Otherwise, fresh NE winds associated with the cold front and aided by Invest AL94, approaching from the east, will funnel through the Windward Passage Fri evening into Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A strong cold front curves southwestward from west of Bermuda across 31N71W and the central Bahamas to beyond the Great Bahama Bank. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 30 nm northwest and up to 80 nm southeast of this front. A shear line stretches westward from 25N20W to 24N48W. Patchy showers are seen up to 120 nm north and up to 40 nm south of this boundary. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Fresh to strong N winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are found behind the front to the Florida/Georgia coast. Besides the area near AL94 mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, gentle to moderate ENE to SSE winds and seas of 4 to 8 ft dominate north of 20N between 35W and the cold front. Farther south from the Equator to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate E to ESE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas exist. For the forecast W of 55W, the front will continue to move east across the western Atlantic and reach from 31N63W to the central Bahamas Fri morning, and then stall near 62W Sat before dissipating late Sun into Mon. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 12 ft will continue to affect the waters behind the front through Sun when conditions will start to improve. Invest AL94, located near 07N56W, may undergo some slow development during the next few days as the disturbance moves quickly WNW passing near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday. Strong upper-level winds should end the chances of development by late in the weekend. $$ Chan