000 AXNT20 KNHC 172128 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Oct 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central America and southern Mexico Significant Rainfall: A 1006 mb low pressure is centered near 16N82W, off the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. Gradual development of this system is possible over the next couple of days before it moves inland over Central America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America and southern Mexico late this week and into the weekend. This system could bring significant rainfall to Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the southeastern Mexico Friday through Monday next week, increasing the chance for flooding and landslides. Residents in these countries need to monitor this developing situation closely and listen to the latest forecast from their local meteorological agencies. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W from 19N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 57W/58W from 22N southward through a 1011 mb low (Invest AL94) near 17.5N58.5W, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16N to 21N between 55W and 62W. Some slow development is possible during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves quickly westward to west- northwestward around 20 mph, passing near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday. Strong upper-level winds should end the chances of development by late in the weekend. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone development through the next 7 days. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W/83W from 20N southward through western Panama into the East Pacific. It is moving westward at 5 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is S of 21N between 75W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 05N31W. The ITCZ continues from 05N31W to 09N49W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 15N between 13W and 28W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has shifted SE of much of the Gulf, with the front extending across the northern Yucatan peninsula to near Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are over the SE Gulf, where seas are in the 8-10 ft range. Fresh winds are elsewhere E of 90W with seas of 6-9 ft. W of 90W, moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-10 ft prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 11 ft will continue to affect much of the basin through Sun as strong high pressure builds over the SE United States behind the front. Northeast winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds by Mon, then prevail through the middle of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about potential heavy rainfall late this week into early next week. Aside from the area of low pressure and associated convection over the western Caribbean, moderate to fresh winds generally prevail across the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, except for 7-9 ft in the Yucatan Channel as northerly swell generated in the wake of a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico is spreading into the NW Caribbean waters. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E winds over the central Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds tonight, then prevail through the remainder forecast period. A cold front extending from NW Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters and continuing to east-central Mexico will move further into the NW Caribbean waters tonight, then stall Friday before it lifts back to the Straits of Florida and dissipate over the weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas associated with the front and high pressure building in its wake will affect the NW Caribbean waters through Sun. Otherwise, fresh NE winds associated with the cold front and aided by Invest AL94, approaching from the E, will funnel through the Windward Passage Fri evening into Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 30N70W SW to Andros Island to NW Cuba. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-9 ft prevail W of the front. Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, prevail N of AL94. Moderate to fresh winds generally prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, except N of 22N and E of 42W where seas are in the 8-10 ft range in northerly swell. For the forecast W of 55W, the front will continue to progress SE tonight, then stall Fri. It will then weaken and gradually dissipate through the weekend. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 12 ft will continue to affect the waters W of the front through Sun when conditions will start to improve. Invest AL94, located near 07N56W, may undergo some slow development during the next few days as the disturbance moves quickly WNW passing near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday. Strong upper-level winds should end the chances of development by late in the weekend. $$ AL