000 AXNT20 KNHC 180604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Oct 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND FOR SOUTHERN MEXICO... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W. A 1005 mb low pressure center is close to 16.5N along the tropical wave. A cold front is cutting across the NW half of Cuba, and passing through the Yucatan Channel and the northern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. The environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some additional development during the next day or two. It is possible that a short-lived tropical depression or storm may form, before the system moves inland into Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall is likely in parts of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend. It is possible that this weather system may bring significant rainfall to Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and southeastern Mexico, from Friday through Monday of the next week. The chances for flooding and landslides will increase. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone is medium. Residents who are in these areas must monitor this developing situation closely, and listen to the latest forecasts from their local meteorological agencies. Precipitation: scattered strong in clusters is: within 270 nm of the center in the NW quadrant; from 17N to Cuba between Jamaica and 82W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is between Jamaica and Central America. A NW- to-SE oriented surface trough extends from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, through Belize, toward the 1005 mb low pressure center. Moderate seas are within 220 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, and elsewhere from 15N northward from Jamaica westward. Slight seas are in the SE quadrant, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Strong NE winds are from 24N southward into the Yucatan Channel to 20N. Fresh winds are in the remainder of the N semicircle that is around the low pressure center. ...TROPICAL WAVES... ...INVEST-AL94 LOW PRESSURE CENTER... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W, from 23N southward, moving westward 15 knots. A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 18N along the tropical wave. Moderate to near-rough seas are from 18N to 23N between 50W and 60W. Moderate seas are elsewhere between 50W and 70W. Fresh to strong easterly winds are from 17N to 25N between 58W and 66W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 240 nm of the center in the N quadrant. Development, if any, of this disturbance, should be slow to occur. The forecast movement of this feature is toward the W to WNW around 20 mph. This feature is forecast to pass near or just to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, then close to Hispaniola and the SE Bahamas on Saturday. More development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds, by late this weekend. Please, refer to the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Any convective precipitation also is in the areas of monsoon trough precipitation. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W, to 07N20W, 07N26W 04N35W. The ITCZ continues from 04N35W to 03N48W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 13N between 08W and 37W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean from 20N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through Cuba near 23N80W, to the northern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula, beyond 20N97W, and inland in Mexico. Rough seas are from 25N southward. Moderate seas are elsewhere. Near gale-force NE winds are within 180 nm to the north of the cold front between Andros Island in the NW Bahamas and 87W in the Gulf of Mexico. Strong NE winds are elsewhere from 29N southward. Fresh northerly winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 27N along the western coast of Florida, to 24N86W, to the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula at 88W. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. This trough eventually extends into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 22N southward from 90W westward. Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 11 ft will continue to affect much of the basin through Sun as strong high pressure builds over the SE United States behind a cold front that moved through the basin earlier this afternoon. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish early next week as the high pressure weakens. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, refer to SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the developing low pressure center, and the potential for heavy rainfall, and flooding/mudslides, in parts of Central America, during the next five days to six days. Moderate seas are in the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh easterly winds are between 70W and 77W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from 14N southward between 60W and 66W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 18/0000 UTC, are: 0.02 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Low pressure centered about 90 nm northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios, Honduras is gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional development over the next couple of days. A short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Sat. Farther north, fresh to strong winds and rough seas follow a cold front moving slowly over the Yucatan Channel. This front will dissipate through late Fri ahead of the developing low to the south. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds, rough seas and scattered thunderstorms accompany a trough moving westward to the north of the Leeward Islands into Fri morning. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the basin early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section, for details about the 1012 mb area of low pressure (INVEST-AL94). A cold front passes through 31N67W, through the Bahamas close to 24N76W, beyond 23N80W in Cuba, and into the SW Gulf of Mexico. Near gale-force NE winds are in the Straits of Florida. Strong NE winds are elsewhere from 30N79W 29N74W, to the cold front at 29N. Fresh NE winds are in the remainder of the area that is from the cold front westward. Rough seas are from 27N northward from the cold front westward. Slight seas are elsewhere from 27N southward from the cold front westward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the west of the line that passes through 31N65W, to SE Cuba. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 18/0000 UTC, are: 0.25 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A shear line is along 27N14W 24N31W 22N47W. Rough seas are to the north of 23N40W 26N24W 31N10W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are within 420 nm to the north of the shear line. Fresh NE to E winds are within 520 nm to 850 nm to the south of the shear from 56W eastward. between 25W and 40W. Fresh NE to E winds are elsewhere from the shear line northward from 45W eastward. Strong northerly winds are from 19N to 22N from 20W eastward. Fresh NE winds are from 10N to 19N between 24W and 34W. Fresh southerly winds are from 03N southward between 10W and 17W. A cold front extending from just west of Bermuda to central Cuba will move slowly eastward overnight into Fri, stall late Fri, then dissipate through Sat night into Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will continue to affect the waters W of the front into early next week when conditions will start to improve. Farther south, Invest AL94 is weakening as it moves to the north of the Leeward Islands. Development, if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to west- northwestward at around 15 to 20 kt, passing near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Fri, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas on Sat. By late this weekend, further development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds. $$ mt/ea